As the Conference turns: Yet more realignment news.
by HawkeyedFrog on Feb 7, 2012 9:57 PM CST
in College Football
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PrintBrett McMurphy and The Chronicle are both reporting the Big 12 has revisited the expansion topic, and it seems that the two schools brought up most often are schools that TCU is pretty familiar with from our days of conference jumping- BYU and Louisville. The Big 12 re-expanding to 12 is potentially a good thing for TCU for several reasons: A Big 12 championship means more revenue (and the site would most likely be in Jerryworld, a convenient drive for TCU fans if we make the game, the added stability of two more teams would increase the likelihood that Texas (and as a consequence, Tech, 0U and State) will stick around and keep the Big 12 together for the foreseeable future. The downside for TCU (and if it does come to pass, it is a very sizable downside) is that this will likely mean the reprise of the absolutely murderous Big 12 South- except with TCU in the place of Texas A&M (a definite upgrade). There is certainly some argument that being in what would then become the toughest division in football has an upside- after all, the second best team in the current best division in football was just awarded the BNC (Bogus National Championship), but the SEC has one thing that the likely Big 12 does not have (no, not Texas A&M, I'm talking about things other conferences actually want), which is name recognition and a national power in the other division. Florida is down at the moment, but is indisputably one of the top five jobs in college football, and Georgia and Tennessee are both programs that could easily anchor a weaker division in any other conference- while the only team in the hypothetical Big 12 North redux to sniff a national title is BYU- which is by no one's definition a Nebraska-esque name to anchor a division. What is the Big 12 to do to ensure competitive balance, then? The Big Ten laid the blueprint for it just this past year- split your two national brands into different divisions, even if it doesn't make geographical sense.
By kicking Oklahoma (and to keep as many rivalries as possible intact, Okie State) up into the North and making the Red River Shootout a protected cross division game (as the Big Ten did with Michigan/Ohio State), the Big 12 would give itself not only more competitive balance (and give the non-Texas/0U programs in the South a better chance at the title game) but would also be a significant boon to the conference in negotiating a price for its title game. It's predicted that the mere possibility of a Michigan/Ohio State rematch in the Big Ten title game added a million dollars a year to that games television rights, and by giving networks a possible Texas/0U part two the Big 12 would stand to cash in significantly from the networks as well. This subject might be a sore spot for Longhorn and Sooner supporters, but to those fanbases I have a response: 45-35. Longhorn fans would not tie for the division title with their hated rivals to the North, while beating them head to head, and end up getting shafted out of a title game opportunity. Unlike the Big Ten's premier rivalry (which is played on the last week of the regular season) the Big 12's superpowers play in October, giving both teams ample opportunity to right their place in the rankings and give a winner-takes-all second showdown a huge boost in sending a Big 12 team to the national championship game (or hopefully, playoffs). I'd propose Big 12 divisions like so:
Northeast:
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Kansas
Kansas State
Iowa State
West Virginia
Southwest:
Texas
TCU
Texas Tech
Louisville
BYU
Baylor
Or if you want to substitute your preferred expansion candidate (USF? Cincinnati? UNT?) for BYU or Louisville (or kick out Baylor) it doesn't make much difference. In this example what remains of the Big Eight and SWC have their rivalries intact- and giving Oklahoma State a protected rival of either TCU or Tech ensures that the Cowboys don't revolt as a result of being more shut out of Texas exposure in recruiting. In the summer of 2011 Texas and 0U came together to save the Big 12 conference, but should the conference build back up to 12 in the future the best way for them to save the conference again is separating.
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Nice write up Hawkeye...
But this is the reason we won’t see 12 members in the Big 12 anytime soon…
Everything I’ve read seems to imply that the majority of Big 12 schools want divisions and a conference championship game, the problem seems to be in selecting candidates, and establishing the divisions. Louisville seems like the front runner for 11, but 12 could be anyone’s guess (though BYU, Rutgers, and Cincinnati have the early lead).
From what I’ve read the Texas schools (including TCU) oppose the ACC’s zipper model, since they want to play each other every year and the Oklahoma schools want the old Big 12 South since they want to keep their recruiting foothold in Texas. But the Kansas schools want to balance the football power in the divisions and would also like more games in Texas and they along with Iowa St oppose being grouped with the “new schools” that could range from West Virginia to Utah.
So the problem is two fold, which makes it less likely to happen. Even if a majority of the schools vote yes on adding a 12th (which I think it may require a super majority) they most probably lose those the needed votes once the divisional talks emerge.
Personally, I like the idea of 11. To make the schedules work you can only play 8 conference games which appeals to me as a UT fan, most likely we’d keep the Texas schools and OU on our schedules as permanent rivals and just rotate the old North and new teams in and out each year.
BTW I am not in favor of a CCG, because the of the way its worked out in the past. 1996, the first one against Nebraska, we beat them, it was a great game, but it had a lot of luck involved (still a great memory), and it cost the Huskers a chance at a national title which in turn cost us money (they almost repaid us for that in 2009). Then in 2001 UT got beat by a Colorado team they had previously beaten in the regular season, the loss bumped us out of a sure fire BCS bowl and possibly even a birth in the NCG. Also if OU was in the North in 2004, we would not have received the at large bid over Cal to play in the Rose Bowl against Michigan, another loss would have dropped us out of contention and a win would have put us in the Fiesta. The game also nearly costs OU a title shot in ‘03 when K St shocked everyone and killed them, and the extra loss from the CCG in 2007 bumped Mizzou from the BCS at large selection in favor of Kansas who they had just beat the week before. I can’t find one good thing that game has done for the conference besides making a little extra money, which noone should be complaining about now that everyone’s getting 20+ million a year, except maybe UT & OU who took pay cuts and don’t even want the damn thing…
"We are who we are. People say what they say. The outcome is the outcome. We are proud of ourselves." -DeLoss Dodds 9/21/2011
Wish it would happen, but don't think it will unless UT and OU want it
I like the idea of 12 teams – I mean, geez, the number 12 accounts for half of the conference’s name, for crying out loud – but unless UT and OU are on board I have a hard time seeing it come to fruition. I like the argument that having a CCG would mean more money for everyone, but on the flip side keeping the conference at 10 would mean a bigger piece of the existing pie. Ultimately, the question for UT and OU is whether any added revenue from a CCG outweighs the potential for craziness that the Big XII has seen so many times from that game.
Nice post, very interesting read
Personally I would rather stay at 10 if we can only get BYU and Louisville, just not the kind of quality football programs that I see making this whole thing worth it. However if we could get FSU and Clemson, like some are talking about, I think it becomes worth it. FSU is a national brand that should be coming back up (of course this now makes roughly a decade of that talk) and would also give the Big 12 an entrance into recruiting in Florida. Clemson is also in a good football recruiting area and constantly seem just a few pieces away of consistently putting out very good teams. I understand why BYU would be a take but I’ve yet to be convinced that Louisville is. I just don’t see it
To our credit
WVU played for (and sadly, lost) the National Championship against Notre Dame in 1988, and likely would have won had our starting quarterback and college hall of famer, Major Harris, not gotten hurt very early in the game. :(
Regardless, I’m really looking forward to games against TCU. I was excited when we added you to the Big East, bummed when you joined the Big 12, and excited to be following you guys. It’s gonna be a good series.
"that place laid the foundation for who I am. A lot of outsiders make fun of it and say negative things about West Virginia. Fuck them" - Jerry West
by MountaineerAirman on Feb 10, 2012 6:26 AM CST reply actions
We’re looking forward to it as well, we’re in the exciting honeymoon period where everything is great and we haven’t started beating the heck out of each other yet- as soon as both sides start winning, the honeymoon will be over.
And I know West Virginia has been close, and would’ve likely rocked Ohio State’s socks for the title if not for the Pitt game where Pat White was injured.
http://www.frogsowar.com/
by HawkeyedFrog on Feb 10, 2012 5:30 PM CST up reply actions
You've over done it
Now it’d be heavy in the North. Move WVU to the south and Louisville north and that’s about an even playing field for both divisions.
TEXAS FIGHT
Personally , I still think the divisions are pretty balanced. Texas/0U is a wash (but a Longhorn lean), TCU/OSU is about a wash (more on the TCU side though), Tech and K-State are about even, BYU and West Virginia are close with WVU being a bit better, Baylor is better than Kansas and Louisville is better than Iowa State.
http://www.frogsowar.com/
by HawkeyedFrog on Feb 15, 2012 10:18 AM CST up reply actions
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