Seniors (BOLD is likely to get drafted)
|35||Jantzen Witte||RS SR||INF||R/R||6-1||195||Arlington, Texas||Martin HS|
|3||Davy Wright||RS SR||Util.||R/R||6-1||195||Aledo, Texas||Country Day High School|
|20||Justin Scharf||SR||RHP||R/R||6-0||172||McKinney, Texas||Paris College|
|39||Al Ralston||SR||C||R/R||5-8||180||Houston, Texas||Second Baptist HS|
|4||Josh Gonzales||SR||INF||R/R||5-9||185||Pearland, Texas||San Jacinto College|
- I see Jantzen going in the 6-40 or 6-10 round range because he is a senior and could be forced, hypothetically, into signing for close to nothing ($10k) because he has zero leverage. If not early, he is probably a day three guy if at all.
- The only other hope here is Scharf, but it is much more likely he might see a FA look after the draft. 5% chance he gets a draft look.
|38||Dylan Fitzgerald||RS JR||OF||L/R||6-1||190||Santa Ana, Calif.||Cypress College|
|28||Stefan Crichton||JR||RHP||R/R||6-3||200||Katy, Texas||Cinco Ranch HS|
|34||Andrew Mitchell||JR||RHP||R/R||6-3||225||Houston, Texas||Stratford HS|
|6||Kyle Bacak||JR||C||R/R||5-9||175||Katy, Texas||San Jacinto College|
|10||Trevor Seidenberger||JR||LHP||L/L||6-2||196||Pflugerville, Texas||Blinn College|
|47||Kevin Daniels||JR||OF||L/L||5-10||165||Victoria, Texas||Blinn College|
|24||Paul Hendrix||JR||INF||R/R||6-2||177||North Richland Hills, Texas||Howard College|
- Obviously, Andrew Mitchell leads the group here, he WILL get drafted, it is a matter of when... I could see him going in the supplemental first round, or in the fifth round. The reason for the variance is simple: He has two plus pitches, but has major performance issues. If he goes in the first 35 picks, it is because a scout for a team with 2+ picks in the top 35 has figured out his future, what needs to change in his delivery, and see him contributing at the MLB level in a year or so (as a reliever). If he goes later, it is because a team likes him, knows he will take work, but figures he could have a ceiling of a #2 starter so he is worth the long term investment. Either way, he is looking at a nice pay day, $500,000 is probably his floor.
- Trevor Seidenberger will also get drafted, but his range is much higher... I could see him going somewhere between picks 101 - 500 or so. He has a solid fastball, two breakers that are average and a controllable change, but everything can be a bit flat at times and control comes and goes. But, in this baseball generation, lefties with a solid fastball and a successful track record get taken earlier rather than later. And, with the kind of talent at TCU right now, it would probably be best for him to start his professional career.
- The only other guy I could see taken would be Paul Hendrix, who despite a good year has created more questions than answers about himself. He has tons of tools, but the bat has some "structural" issues that need ironing out, and he just spent the entire year at DH/OF/2B instead of his highest potential position, SS. He could go, he could not, I have no idea, but I bet he does and I bet he signs.
Draft Eligible Underclassmen
|40||Trey Teakell||RS SO||RHP||R/R||6-5||170||Weatherford, Texas||Weatherford HS|
|5||Derek Odell||SO||INF||L/R||6-1||185||Canyon, Texas||Canyon HS|
- I don't think either of these guys will get drafted, but Teakell may get a late round look, keep your eyes out... But, in all likelihood, he will be back in 2014 looking to up his innings before he reenters the draft as a 4th year junior.
2013 Recruiting Class Commitments
|1||Brandon McKinney||OF/1B||L/L||6'2"||195 lbs.||Plano/Plano West|
|2||Tyler Alexander||LHP||R/L||6'2"||175 lbs.||Southlake/Carroll|
|3||Brian Howard||RHP||R/R||6'9"||192 lbs.||St. Louis (MO)/St. Louis U.|
|4||Ryan Burnett||LHP||L/L||6'2"||208 lbs.||The Woodlands/Woodlands HS|
|5||Connor Castellano||IF||L/R||6'0"||190 lbs.||Shreveport/Sante Fe. JUCO|
|6||Walker Pennington||OF||R/R||6'1"||185 lbs.||Houston/Memorial|
|7||Jordan Kipper||RHP||R/R||6'4"||185 lbs.||Phoenix (AZ)/Central Arizona|
|8||Brandon Gilson||LHP||L/L||6'5"||225 lbs.||Prosper/Prosper HS|
|9||Eric Garza||IF||S/R||5'11"||180 lbs.||San Antonio/Reagan HS|
|T. 10||Connor Beck||OF||R/R||6'2"||175 lbs.||Midland/Midland HS|
|T. 10||Garrett Crain||IF||S/R||6'0"||185 lbs.||Mustang (OK)/Rose State College|
|T. 10||Will Foreman||OF||R/R||5'10"||180 lbs.||Houston/Lamar HS|
|T. 10||Will Fox||IF/OF||L/R||6'0"||160 lbs.||Montgomery/Montgomery HS|
|T. 10||Alex Mata||IF||R/R||5'10"||165 lbs.||Midland/Midland HS|
|T. 10||Robby Medel||RHP||R/R||6'3"||180 lbs.||Grand Prairie/Bowie HS|
East Bernard/East Bernard HS
This is the part of the preview where things get a bit "interesting." Every player on this list is "eligible" to be drafted, and many of them will be drafted. But, what determines their future is not their ability, but often their "signability" or a teams perception of how strong a players commitment to their University is.
TCU has a deep class committed for 2013, starting with top flight outfielder Billy McKinney. McKinney is the biggest draft risk for TCU, and is quite unlikely to make it to Fort Worth. If I had to put a number on it, I give TCU a 5% of chance, at most.
If you want to hope, hope on this: Scouts see McKinney as a great, natural bat, with a 6 projected hit tool and a 6 power tool (on the 2-8 scale), but his other tools are average at best. In fact, some question whether his athleticism and arm will be good enough to play anywhere other than LF or 1B, which makes some think he isn't close to worth the $1 million+ he is asking for.
But, he does play extremely hard, and typically guys with his kind of hustle are given a "pass" for a lack of natural athletic ability, and McKinney projects to go anywhere from pick 20 overall to 50, at the latest. If he drops to the third round, TCU has a shot. But that is unlikely.
After McKinney, things get much better for TCU as there are no serious draft risks left in the commit list. Tyler Alexander is an extremely talented left hander who has risen up draft boards in the last year. Scouts love him and believe he projects out as a potential #3 starter, but his price tag is quite high ($1 million) which has dampened his signability. While Alexander is quite good, his fastball velocity hasn't yet gotten to the point where most see him as a top five round talent, which is where he would need to go to get close to his dollar figure. I think he falls, and comes to TCU.
Brian Howard will likely get drafted and has tons of room for protection, but the kid isn't close to ready... He may get drafted, but he is a strong commit to TCU, he will be a Frog. Same with Ryan Burnett, who has been quite dominant, but his fastball just isn't there yet, he will likely be another stellar left hander for TCU in an already crowded staff.
The only other commits I am worried about are Castellano and Kipper, JUCO transfers who will also get looks in the draft. No word on their signability, both will likely get drafted, but I have to think both will go to TCU at the end of the day.