Will TCU Get Whipsawed When the Dominoes Fall….
This week’s Sports Illustrated describes Texas A&M’s departure from the Big 12 as inevitable. Monday’s USA Today described Texas A&M’s defection to the SEC as imminent. Today, Today, A&M’s letter has reportedly hit the desk of the Big 12 Commissioner advising they are going to seek to play in another conference (thereby giving the SEC the argument they need to avoid a Tortious Interference with Contracts claim. A&M is one step closer to departure, and it is now not a matter of "whether," but "when." I have accepted it. To the extent you care, you should accept it.
The SEC will not remain at 13. It is unlucky and aside from that, it is a prime number. So, if you accept the premise that Texas A&M is gone, then that means only one thing . . . the SEC will look to acquire another team . . . or three.
Before you jump to the conclusion that it may be TCU, fear not, I will neither advocate for that, nor do I want that. It’s fallacy. I’m not personal friends with Mike Slive, and I don’t sit on the board of trustees for TCU. But, a lot of this is simply logic. So, let’s take a walk through the options and see what makes the most sense…
Stop #1 on SEC’s recruiting list will be to jump to 16 and go after
Plus, it forces the SEC to be unnaturally skewed to the west, where the most eastern western teams will be
So, let’s look East. The three schools being bandied about are:
The ACC is a mess in football lately. They can’t win bowl games. Several schools find themselves in some NCAA hot water (which is a tad unusual for ACC schools). But, it is a very stable conference. The nucleus is the North Carolina Schools -- Tobacco Road (UNC, NCSt, Wake, and Duke). But
So… where does that leave the SEC to balance out this whole Texas A&M acquisition? I think that is, ultimately, the SEC’s hesitation. It isn’t that they don’t want to get into the
Let’s take this one step further…
So, now, let’s look at these conferences for 2012 and see how they stack up
Big East (with the loss of West Va to the SEC, but adding TCU)
Mountain West after providing a haven for former Big 12 schools
Texas Tech and/or Baylor
Fresno State (to be added in 2012)
San Diego State (who is much improved in football)
I don’t know about you, but if there is only one BCS auto-birth permitted (because the SEC or Pac16 convinces the NCAA to give them two), which one would you give it to?
As soon as you say, "that will never happen," it will.