No. 7 TCU is in Good Position to Move Up in the College Football Playoff Rankings

In case you missed it, TCU was ranked No. 7 in the College Football Playoff rankings released on Tuesday night. The Top 10 is as follows:

1. Mississippi State Bulldogs

2. Florida State Seminoles

3. Auburn Tigers

4. Ole Miss Rebels

5. Oregon Ducks

6. Alabama Crimson Tide

7. TCU Horned Frogs

8. Michigan State Spartans

9. Kansas State Wildcats

10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

So, you can see that there are four SEC teams, along with Florida State and Oregon, ahead of TCU. If you're a Horned Frog Fan, you should be happy with this initial ranking. Here are five reasons why, and one hail mary.

1. TCU is already ahead of Michigan State and Notre Dame

The voters have essentially decided that at this point in the season, TCU has been more impressive than Michigan State and Notre Dame. That's incredibly valuable. TCU's best win is over then-ranked No. 4 Oklahoma, while Michigan State's is over then-ranked No. 19 Nebraska. Notre Dame's best win is their loss to Florida State (I know I'm not the first person to say that), but really their best actual win is over 3-loss Stanford or North Carolina, take your pick.

Here's how the three teams remaining schedules look the rest of the way:

Date	No. 7 TCU (6-1)	No. 8 Michigan State (7-1)	No. 10 Notre Dame (6-1)
November 1	at No. 20 West Virginia (6-2)	OFF	at Navy (4-4)
November 8	vs. No. 9 Kansas State (6-1)	vs. No. 16 Ohio State (6-1)	at No. 14 Arizona State (6-1)
November 15	at Kansas (2-5)	at Maryland (5-3)	vs. Northwestern (3-4)
November 22	OFF	vs. Rutgers (5-3)	vs. No. 25 Louisville (6-2)
November 29	at Texas (3-5) (Nov. 27)	at Penn State (4-3)	at USC (5-3)
December 6	vs. Iowa State (2-5)	Big 10 Championship	OFF
Remaining Combined Opponent Record (RCOR)	19-18	20-10	24-14

While TCU plays the two weakest teams (Kansas, Iowa State) out of the three, they also have the hardest team (Kansas State) left out of the three. All three teams have games that are lose-able, but they all have the potential to win out as well. At this point, I'd put Michigan State as the team with the best chance to win out (out of these three).

This will come down to championship weekend, when TCU faces off against lowly Iowa State, while Michigan State, if they stay on course, will be facing off against a very beatable Big 10 West team (probably Nebraska, maybe Minnesota). TCU fans should really follow Minnesota closely the rest of the way, because they could be a huge help to the Frogs should they reach the Big 10 Championship. Of course, they still face off against Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio State and Wisconsin, so the likelihood of them losing another game or two is high.

2. The SEC West is about to go Hannibal on itself

We can talk about SEC bias until we're blue in the face, but the fact of the matter is, in this sport your recent legacy carries almost as much weight as your current record, which is why four SEC West teams are in the Top 6. However, those four teams still have ridiculous schedules ahead. Here they are.

Date	No. 1 Mississippi State (7-0)	No. 3 Auburn (6-1)	No. 4 Ole Miss (7-1)	No. 6 Alabama (7-1)
Nov. 1	vs. Arkansas (4-4)	at No. 4 Ole Miss (7-1)	vs. No. 3 Auburn (6-1)	OFF
Nov. 8	vs. UT Martin (4-5)*	vs. Texas A&M (5-3)	vs. Presbyterian (5-3)*	at No. 19 LSU (7-2)
Nov. 15	at No. 6 Alabama (7-1)	at No. 11 Georgia (6-1)	OFF	vs. No. 1 Miss St. (7-0)
Nov. 22	vs. Vanderbilt (2-6)	vs. Samford (4-3)*	at Arkansas (4-4)	vs. W. Carolina (6-2)*
Nov. 29	at No. 4 Ole Miss (7-1)	at No. 6 Alabama (7-1)	vs. No. 1 Miss St. (7-0)	vs. No. 3 Auburn (6-1)
Dec. 6	SEC Championship	SEC Championship	SEC Championship	SEC Championship
RCOR (with FCS opponent)	24-17	29-9	22-8	26-5
RCOR (w/o FCS opponent)	20-12	25-6	17-5	20-3
*FCS Opponent

Out of these four, Auburn has the hardest schedule left by far, having to go on the road against Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama. Meanwhile, it would seem like Ole Miss has the easiest schedule left, with only four games and Auburn and Mississippi State at home. The Bulldogs still have to go to Tuscaloosa, while the Tide has to go to Death Valley. The argument could be made that at the end of all of it, there will be only one SEC team with fewer than two losses.

Essentially what this means for TCU is that as long as they take care of business, they're going to watch, at minimum, two SEC teams fall behind them as we move through the back half of the season.

3. Oregon's remaining schedule is very weak

The Ducks have quality wins over Michigan State and UCLA, but the rest of their schedule isn't very daunting, meaning there may not be much opportunity to move up unless the SEC teams ahead of them fall out (very possible).

Here's a side by side of TCU vs. Oregon's remaining schedules.

Date	No. 5 Oregon (7-1)	No. 7 TCU (6-1)
November 1	vs. Stanford (5-3)	at No. 20 West Virginia (6-2)
November 8	at No. 17 Utah (6-1)	vs. No. 9 Kansas State (6-1)
November 15	OFF	at Kansas (2-5)
November 22	vs. Colorado (2-6)	OFF
November 29	at Oregon State (4-3)	at Texas (3-5) (Nov. 27)
December 6	PAC 12 Championship	vs. Iowa State (2-5)
RCOR	17-13	19-18

Oregon's hardest remaining game is at Utah, which, if they play poorly, is very loseable. Outside of that, their remaining schedule is weaker than TCU's, despite the Frogs' remaining games against Kansas and Iowa State.

If Oregon ends up beating the Utes, they'll probably face off against the winner of Arizona State/Arizona in the Pac-12 Championship.

4. Florida State should win out pretty easily

Wait, why is this good for TCU? I'll tell you. If Florida State loses a game the rest of the way, it'll probably be this Thursday against No. 25 Louisville. That gives them enough time as a one-loss team to run the rest of the schedule and get close to being in the Top 4. If it comes down to TCU and Florida State for the final spot, the resumes are very close, and it's highly likely that Florida State gets the nod as the defending champs. TCU's best win at the end of the season, should they win-out, would be No. 4 Oklahoma with No. 9 Kansas State close behind. Meanwhile, FSU will have beaten No. 22 Clemson and No. 5 Notre Dame, and both teams would have a loss to a Top 25 opponent.

What pushes FSU ahead? Well, defending champs status, as well as the ACC Championship game, where they'd probably face off against a ranked Duke team, while TCU played Iowa State.

Here's FSU's schedule the rest of the way, compared to TCU.

Date	No. 2 Florida State (7-0)	No. 7 TCU (6-1)
November 1	at No. 25 Louisville (6-2) (Oct. 30)	at No. 20 West Virginia (6-2)
November 8	vs Virginia (4-4)	vs. No. 9 Kansas State (6-1)
November 15	at Miami (5-3)	at Kansas (2-5)
November 22	vs. Boston College (5-3)	OFF
November 29	vs. Florida (3-3)	at Texas (3-5) (Nov. 27)
December 6	ACC Championship	vs. Iowa State (2-5)
RCOR	23-15	19-18

5. Outside of the SEC and Big 12, the other Power 5 conferences only have one contender

The Pac 12 (Oregon), Big 10 (MIchigan State) and ACC (Florida State) really only have one contender each to get into the college football playoff. That's good for TCU, because it means that if any of these teams lose, especially later in the season or in their conference championship, TCU is less likely to be jumped by anyone else in their conference.

There are a few teams to keep your eye on though.

The second-highest Pac 12 team is No. 14 Arizona State, arguably the most likely to shoot up the rankings should they win their conference. Meanwhile, the next highest ranked Big 10 teams are Nebraska at No. 15, and Ohio State at No. 16. Ohio State has potential to climb, as they still face off against Michigan State, and then could win the Big 10 (presumably against Nebraska).

Meanwhile, the ACC's next best team is Clemson at No. 21, who Florida State already beat. It's very likely that if Florida State loses somewhere along the way, that the ACC would be left out of the playoff entirely.

If any of these teams were to lose, however, it leaves room for another SEC team (any of Auburn, Alabama, Ole Miss and Georgia, assuming Mississippi State wins out), to hop into the mix, but at that point, TCU would have most likely moved into the Top 4 as well.

One Hail Mary: Go Minnesota Go

Outside of TCU taking care of business, the best advocate for the Horned Frogs is MInnesota. The Gophers, sitting at 6-2, still square off against Nebraska and Ohio State. If, and it's a massive if (hence the Hail Mary), Minnesota could knock off one, or both, of those squads, they could wind up in the Big 10 championship against Michigan State. A win there, and holy cow the Frogs beat the Big 10 champs 30-7, and that looks really, really good.

So, keep an eye on those teams the rest of the way and take comfort in knowing that things are looking good for TCU. Also, if you want it, here's the Top 25 with toughest opponent remaining.

Rank	Team	Conference	Toughest opponent left (per F/+)	If the season ended today ...
1	Mississippi State	SEC	Ole Miss	Sugar Bowl vs. Ole Miss
2	Florida State	ACC	Louisville	Rose Bowl vs. Auburn
3	Auburn	SEC	Ole Miss	Rose Bowl vs. Florida State
4	Ole Miss	SEC	Auburn	Sugar Bowl vs. Mississippi State
5	Oregon	Pac-12	Stanford	New Year's bowl
6	Alabama	SEC	Auburn	Orange Bowl*
7	TCU	Big 12	Kansas State	New Year's bowl
8	Michigan State	Big Ten	Ohio State	New Year's bowl
9	Kansas State	Big 12	TCU	New Year's bowl
10	Notre Dame	Independent	Louisville	New Year's bowl
11	Georgia	SEC	Auburn
12	Arizona	Pac-12	Arizona State
13	Baylor	Big 12	Oklahoma
14	Arizona State	Pac-12	Notre Dame
15	Nebraska	Big Ten	Wisconsin
16	Ohio State	Big Ten	Michigan State
17	Utah	Pac-12	Oregon
18	Oklahoma	Big 12	Baylor
19	LSU	SEC	Alabama
20	West Virginia	Big 12	TCU
21	Clemson	ACC	Georgia Tech	Orange Bowl*
22	UCLA	Pac-12	Stanford
23	East Carolina	American	UCF	New Year's bowl*
24	Duke	ACC	Virginia Tech
25	Louisville	ACC	Florida State