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It's a huge weekend in college football, and TCU is right in the thick of it. As Marshall said last week, no one is safe, and that rings true again this Saturday.
The Four
Marshall Weber
1. Mississippi State
Dak and the the Bulldogs, despite having the second worse defense in the SEC, are still my top team. They've had more convincing wins, and played tougher teams than Florida State. They have two more big games; Alabama, and Ole Miss. As I'll say below, no team in this thing is perfect. Like FSU, or even TCU, Mississippi State works around their flaw. Great teams find ways to win, and even though they have two heavy hitters left, Mississippi State has come this far--and I don't think they're going anywhere this season.
2. Florida State
Don't hate 'em cause you ain't 'em. Florida State gave a very good Louisville a very good head start. And guess what? They still found a way to win. In all likelihood, the Noles will go undefeated and maybe get the number one seed. If you're the number four seed, whether it be an Oregon or TCU, you're probably salivating a bit. If you're the Frogs, there's little doubt your Air Raid will would be effective against the youthful Florida State defense.
3. Oregon
Oregon finally found a way to beat Stanford. That way was beating a Cardinal team that isn't very good. Still, Stanford plays better defense--or defense at all--than anyone in a conference that plays little defense at all. Still, aside from Mississippi State's win against Auburn, Oregon may have the best win--the shellacking against Sparty. Oregon still has Utah, Oregon State, and a conference championship to play, but they're as complete and consistent as anyone I've seen in the Pac-12
4. TCU
I give the Frogs to nod over Auburn for two reasons; they've played better, and they have a better loss. Auburn lost a two-possession game to Mississippi State. Gus Malzahn's innovative offense filled with pop passes is great, but if that's your defining quality, don't lose to the SEC's second worst defense by a considerable margin.
Every team in this thing has a glaring flaw. You look at TCU and you see a team that's one more experienced corner from being undefeated, and possibly being the best team in the country. Baylor beat TCU by exposing its weakness at the perfect moment--when it had not yet become a problem. Patterson has adapted his scheme since, and that was seen on Saturday as TCU held the Big 12's most prolific receiver to three catches--knocking him out of any Heisman talk. If the Frogs beat Kansas State Saturday, and hang more than Auburn did on them, it'll be nearly impossible to leave out TCU.
Hawkeyed Frog
1. Mississippi State Bulldogs
The Bulldogs have no losses to go along with the most impressive win among the undefeated teams (over Auburn) meaning that I'm more inclined to overlook their recent struggles with the more mediocre members of the SEC. Despite that, all past history has taught us that if the Bulldogs lose, they don't have the marquee name needed to stay in the conversation- The Bulldogs need to be SEC champions to have a shot at the playoff, this is not a team that will squeak into the field without a conference championship.
2. Florida State Seminoles
Are the Seminoles the second best team in the country? I seriously doubt it. Still, they're undefeated (and the defending champs to boot) so they're in until they lose. They're in an interesting game this week against a Virginia team that has come close to doing a lot of good things this year, but haven't quite put it all together- I don't know that I'd pick the Cavaliers to win, but I will certainly say that that 21.5 point line looks mighty tempting. I'm reasonably confident the Seminoles lose before all is said and done, and at that point the ACC's lack of quality opponents will see them plummet out of playoff range.
3. TCU Horned Frogs
Finding a way to win on the road, when all of the elements are against you? That's worth a jump in my estimation. The Big 12 isn't necessarily as deep as the Pac 12, but the top five teams of the conference are just as good as the top 5 of the SEC (and better than the top 5 of any other league), and TCU may finish with a 3-1 record against the others. I believe that this is the week that Boykin elevates himself from Heisman darkhorse to serious threat with a win over the Wildcats, and then he has three games against the bottom of the Big 12 to put up some big numbers- there are big things ahead for TCU, as long as they beat the Wildcats on Saturday.
4. Oregon Ducks
Conference championships matter, and the Ducks are the cream of a very good crop in the Pac 12. If their offensive line stayed together at full health all year, this may have been your #1 playoff seed, but they were hurt against Arizona, and are hurt again now as they head to Utah to take on one of the nation's best defensive lines. If Oregon continues to win from here, they'll absolutely be deserving of a playoff spot.
Coachmelissa
1. Mississippi State
The Bulldogs would be #1 team if the season ended today, but I'm not at all confident they stay there. Dak Prescott is the real deal at QB, the defense is good bordering on very good, and they score enough points to get the job done. But with trips to Bama and Ole Miss to close out the year, there's not a lot of room for error. The Bulldogs are a great story, but by the end of the season, that might be all they are.
2. Florida State
I could not be less impressed with how the Noles have handled their off the field issues, but to this point they have taken care of business on it. Unless they trip up at Miami (which is highly possible), or keep losing players to idiocy, you're looking at your #1 seed.
3. Oregon
A complete dismantling of a good (but slightly overrated in my opinion) Stanford team vaults the Ducks in to the convo. Mariotta has played lights out this season, and has the inside track to the Heisman as Prescott may get tripped up by Bama. Don't sleep on our good friends the Utes, who have a tendency to pull off one of these upsets late every year, and could very well shake things up for the committee by knocking off UO Saturday in Utah. The Pac 12 is good, but the schedule plays out well for Oregon to run the table and win a Pac 12 Championship, and ensure they stay here.
4. TCU
Well, duh. You can argue SEC all you want, but I think the Frogs have a solid argument that they belong in the top four at this point. WVU is as good a road win as any one loss team has, and a three point loss to another highly ranked team is as forgivable a loss. Based on the rankings when they played, TCU has taken down a top five team, a top 15 team, and a top 20 team, and are last second field goal loss to another top five team from being blemish free. Beat the top ten Cats under the lights Saturday, and the Frogs will be #4 for the committee, too.
Jamie Plunkett
1. Florida State
I'll keep this up because I really believe it: They're No. 1 in my book until they lose. Did they have a tough game against Louisville? Absolutely. What have we been saying about TCU all week? Good teams find ways to win. Florida State did exactly what TCU did, they got down early and found a way to win late. Louisville is a solid team, with a good defense. That wasn't some candy team that Florida State struggled with.
2. Mississippi State
Again, good teams find a way to win. I'm telling you, Arkansas is closer than ever, but as good ol' Bert keeps saying, Arkansas will win a conference game when it deserves to win a conference game. They had some big mistakes that Mississippi State took advantage of, but the Razorbacks also made everyone in Starkville sweat.
3. Oregon
Oregon and TCU have defeated the same number of (current) Top 25 teams with two. The Ducks wins are over Michigan State and UCLA, while TCU's are over Oklahoma and West Virginia. Michigan State gives the Ducks a slight edge, and pushes them into the three spot over the Frogs.
4. TCU
Auburn fans would cry out that they've been snubbed, and they'd make the same arguments that TCU fans are making right now. But unfortunately, they don't run this blog, I do. So WDE somewhere else why don't you. TCU could lock down a playoff spot this weekend with a win over Kansas State (provided they don't trip over themselves on the way to the finish line), and Baylor fans would just have to suffer.
Just Missed
Marshall Weber
5. Auburn
6. Kansas State
Hawkeyed Frog
5. Auburn
6. Kansas State
Coachmelissa
5. Auburn
6. Alabama
Jamie Plunkett
5. Auburn
6. Kansas State
On the Fence
Marshall
7. Alabama
8. Michigan State
9. Arizona State
10. Ole Miss
Hawkeyed Frog
7. Alabama
8. Michigan State
9. Notre Dame
10. Nebraska
Coachmelissa
7. Michigan State
8. Kansas State
9. Ole Miss
10. Arizona State
Jamie Plunkett
7. Michigan State
8. Alabama
9. Baylor
10. Notre Dame