The Playoff Shootaround: 12/4

So here we are, in the last week, and no one is safe. Even with a number 3 ranking has me nervous. But when you're nervous, it's good to talk it out. So that's what we did. And we asked the important questions. Such as; what are TCU's chances of staying in? If the season ended today who would we rather play; Oregon or Alabama? Do TCU fans want Baylor in the playoff with them? And are people underestimating Kansas State?

Also, a big thanks to TCU student, Andrew Felts for the laughs with his photoshopped Baylor billboards.

Marsh:

Wow. TCU's number 3. Thoughts?

Melissa:

To me, moving TCU to 3 is less a statement about FSU as it is about the committee's feelings on the Frogs. Since the opening rankings, it has been clear that they didn't feel that Baylor's win was a dominant display of the better team, but more of a fluky loss for TCU, and the Frogs have rewarded that belief by blowing out every ranked team they've faced (with the exception of WVU) since. It shows that the committee is looking at the entirety of the team, not just the wins and losses, and have decided through that "eye test" that TCU is very good to great, had one bad quarter, but have gotten better and better (on the defense end especially) each week (yes Kansas, but if you've looked at the TCU schedule in depth, it's not a surprise there was a letdown on the road in Lawrence. And the D was great in that game). FSU is definitely in if they win, and maybe moving them to 4 sets them up for the favorable location in New Orleans, though I expect them to be third next week if they handle GT.

Andrew:

At this point, anything that the committee does that favors TCU will be a pleasant surprise to me. Personally, I think they got it right, because at this point in time, TCU does in fact look like the third best team in the country. Strictly going by the eye test, the Horned Frogs pass every time, even over unbeaten Florida State. All that being said though, I have a really hard time seeing the committee leaving out Ohio State if they win next week. It looks like Baylor may have blown it with their non-conference schedule, but the Buckeyes still have a chance to make a huge impression and I think the committee is just waiting to see how they look under Jones. Maybe that is just the cynical Dallas sports fan in me though.

Marsh:

Melissa, I think this is a statement on many levels. Since the first rankings came out, I’ve felt that the committee favors TCU for a few reasons. One, they think TCU’s the better team in the Big 12. And by all accounts, they could be. They dominated 50 minutes of a 60 minute game and then blew it. But a loss on the road, and the way the two traded blows, the game was [essentially] a tie. TCU wasn’t supposed to win the game either, Baylor was ranked higher and had a 70% chance of winning. Post-Baylor, they’ve played better than the Bears and don’t have a 14-point loss on their resume. I’m not trying to get snooty, but remember when I said that good losses would be weigh more than good wins? Welp, now it shows.

I also think the committee wants Florida State out--and we’ll talk more on their matchup with Georgia Tech later. They want them to play Bama first, get out, and let Alabama play Oregon or TCU. Lastly, and yes, Minnesota isn’t a powerhouse, but they [committee] are setting the tone for what they want college football to be. Yes, Baylor could beat Minnesota in Waco. But scheduling non-Power 5 teams is going to start hurting teams. And it’s a main reason why I wouldn’t lose sleep over not playing SMU anymore.

It’s sort of like dystopian fiction--there are a dozen-ish men and women designing a system for the whole. The unwritten rule of "Power 5 scheduling Power 5" from here on out will make the game a lot more competitive and watchable.

Marsh:

So is a playoff bid, whether in LA or New Orleans all but certain now?

Jamie:

I really want to say yes, but I'm not sure. My biggest question is this: What happens if Bama, Oregon, FSU, Ohio State and Baylor all win this Saturday, and do so convincingly? Will a win over Iowa State keep us in the Top 4? I hope so. However, it's clear that the committee really, really likes TCU. Jeff Long said as much on Tuesday night, when he mentioned that they truly thought TCU was one of the top 3 teams in the country and improving. That's the key. The committee has recognize that TCU is getting even better.

Melissa:

Ehh... yes and no. My thought is this: If you have any intention of punishing TCU for winning (i.e. dropping them out of the top 4 if OSU or Baylor wins), why move them to three? I don't think these meetings happen in a vacuum, and I would imagine that they do look ahead to some degree as they make them. So, if you were thinking that a convincing win by Baylor or Ohio State would vault them in to the fourth spot, why not leave FSU at three and give TCU the fourth spot? It would be much easier to justify one team jumping the Frogs than two in the final week of the season, if we handle our business against ISU. Nothing is certain - but the backlash the committee has taken for not only keeping the Frogs ahead of Baylor despite the H2H, but having them jump an undefeated team to boot? They must REALLY feel strongly about the overall merit of our team. I don't think anything outside of an Ohio State loss, a TCU ugly win, and a victory over K State along the lines of 60-17 (I think the committee HAS to see Baylor's defense, you know, defend, to even get them in to the conversation) moves BU back in to the top four. Ohio State could make the jump, but they would need a convincing win over Wisconsin and Cardale Jones would have to play lights out for the committee to move them in to the top 4 over the Frogs.

Andrew:

Nothing is certain. Did anyone honestly think TCU would be ranked third this week? They seemed "certain" for number four last week, so I’m going to opt out of promising TCU fans anything. They are in significantly better position to make it now though than they did even two days ago. If they win convincingly, it does look like it would take a near-perfect storm of events and box scores from Baylor and Ohio State to oust them. My money would be on them landing in the four spot and playing Bama in New Orleans, though.

Marsh:

Which of the Top 6 is most likely to lose on Sunday? For me, it has to be Florida State. That triple option is deadly, and they have a defense that would sustain a lead and not allow the Noles their usual comeback.

Jamie:

I'd say, in this order from most likely to least likely: Florida State, Ohio State, Baylor, Oregon, Alabama, TCU. Georgia Tech's offense is built to stay on the field for long stretches of time, so if they can turn Jameis over in the first half (not a difficult feat this season), they could easily take a lead into the half. What they do with it at that point is up in the air, but I think they have what it takes. Ohio State will have to beat a very good Wisconsin team without J.T. Barrett, and that could be asking too much. Their defense has been suspect at times, and if you couple that with a stagnant offense they could easily drop.

While it feels like Baylor is overlooking KSU, I think that's more the fans and media than the team itself. Art Briles will have the Bears ready for this game, but that doesn't mean they'll win it. Bill Snyder is a genius, and KSU has been flying well under the radar since their loss to the Frogs. It wouldn't shock me to see the Wildcats win.

Meanwhile, Oregon has a bone to pick with Arizona, Alabama plays a team that lost to Indiana, and TCU is looking to be co-champs of the Big 12. Not to mention, do we remember the last time Iowa State came to Fort Worth? I'm sure Boykin wants a do-over on that one.

Andrew:

At this point I am starting to think that any projection that has Florida State losing is just wishful thinking. The Seminoles are the new super villain in American sports and the fact is that everyone outside of Tallahassee wants to see them go down. If you are asking about the top six then I think Ohio State has the best chance to fall. If Wisconsin can turn the game into a grinder then I would expect Jones to have trouble playing with patience and discipline in his first start. I look for Wisconsin to win a sloppy one.

Melissa:

Florida State is the easy pick, as not only have they looked susceptible in just about every game this week, but I think everyone outside of Tallahassee wants them to lose. Georgia Tech is a good team, and their triple option can keep the offense off the field, and defensively, the Jackets are capable of turning over Jameis Winston and pulling out the W. But, I think Ohio State has the toughest challenge Saturday - the way they responded to Miller going down was impressive, and JT Barrett turned in a Heisman caliber season replacing him. I don't know much about Cardale Jones, but I know a lot about Wisconsin, and I think they will squeak out the W, on the backs of Melvin Gordon and a much improved Stave at QB.

Marsh:

Do you wanna see Baylor get in as long as TCU does? I do.

Andrew:

As hilarious as it would be if Baylor got left out after hiring a PR firm, the competitor in me wants a rematch. I would love to see TCU play Baylor for the national title in Jerry World. For one thing, that would cement those two as not only the premiere programs in the hotbed state of Texas, but it would do miracles for the reputation of the Big 12. It would sure be a storybook ending for either team. However, the national title game is basically the only way they would meet. If Baylor is getting in, it is in the four spot, which would slate TCU ahead of them, because Bama and Oregon aren’t going down. Saban and Mariota smell blood.

Melissa:

I have mixed feelings right now... I want the rematch. I crave the rematch. I want to see these two fan bases square off in Jerry World with a national title on the line. Can you imagine? It would be absolutely epic. But... man, I am sick of the whining. I just don't think they are one of the best four teams in the country right now, and I don't want to see their entitled fan base, their classless team, or their PR firm be rewarded for all their crying. I might change my mind based on what they do against Kansas State, but for now, cry me a river, Bears.

Jamie:

Sure, the more Big 12 teams the better. Anything to unseat the SEC as the de-facto best/strongest conference in the country. Frankly, I think both teams deserve it at this point, too.

Marsh:

I just feel like, if either Florida State or Baylor lose this weekend, it’s better for TCU. If the former happens, Baylor could get in. That’d be great because they’d play Alabama, and that would slow down #BaylorTwitter a bit. If Baylor loses, TCU still shares a conference title, but it feels more clean. And then the rest of the world can shut up and TCU can just take care of business. I still think TCU passes the eyeball test, and 95% of the head-head argument is just a lazy, knee jerk reaction. That being said, I think Baylor and TCU are both Top 4 teams. They both deserve it.

Marsh:

Who would you rather see the Frogs matchup with in the first game; Bama or Oregon?

Jamie:

I mean, I'm all about the "We Want Bama" mantra that so many teams chant, mostly full of sarcasm. But they seem to be fully functioning now, and really, they're just plain terrifying, so give me Oregon.

Melissa:

I have followed the Oregon program pretty closely for the last few years - being from California and coaching at the high school level there, I know a lot of kids that play for the Ducks, and I don't think there is any doubt that Mariota is the best QB in the country, and quite possibly the best college player, period. TCU has been hurt by two things this year - deep passes and scrambling QBs. Marriota fits the bill on both of those - he's accurate on the deep ball and capable of picking up first downs with his legs consistently. I think we could slow down the Oregon O enough defensively and score with them enough offensively to make it a great game, and I don't think there is anyone in the mix that we aren't capable of beating. That being said, having watched Alabama - their secondary is suspect at best, and Boykin could make them pay with his arms and his legs. Amari Cooper is the best collegiate receiver I have seen in a long time, but I don't think Blake Sims is accurate enough to kill TCU with the deep ball consistently enough to keep the Frogs from being able to win. I have seen us shut down a top target several times this year - Cooper would get his, but it would mean Sims being perfect for them to do it enough to run away with the game. I don't see that happening. I also think that the Frogs could slow down the Bama run game enough to be able to get more pressure on Sims and make him one dimensional... which would be bad news for that offense.

Andrew:

Give me Bama. If you look at TCU over the past few years, Patterson’s defensive units have always played better against more traditional or pro-style offenses. Oregon would play like a better version of Baylor, and Bama would be a better version of K-State. While Bama has weapons, the line isn’t quite what it has been in the pass and the defense would do a good job of taking away the running game. Plus, Patterson’s bunch have been blitzing like crazy this year with all the athletes they have on the second and third lines, and they would pressure Blake Simms into making some bad decisions. I’m not sure the same can be said about Mariota; at least not to the same degree. I think TCU can score enough on either of them to win, but my question is more how effectively they could stop Oregon.

Marsh:

I think I’d rather have Bama too. I think Oregon may be slightly better, but you win in New Orleans against the SEC Champions in your first game...that’s a lot of confidence.

Marsh:

Who would the defense have more trouble stopping; Mariota or Cooper?

Andrew:

Just in the context of who would have a better day? Cooper would eat TCU alive. The one area that the Frogs have struggled this season is stopping big play receivers. Baylor’s receiving corps had field day. Sterling Shepard went crazy. Tyler Lockett was unstoppable. Cooper would go NUTS because he is, in my opinon, the best receiver in the country. But while he would get his, TCU would still have better shot against his team than Mariota’s.

Melissa:

I kind of addressed this in the last question, but I think Mariota is the more dangerous guy for one reason - he has the ball in his hands from the snap. Cooper relies on someone getting him the ball, which means the o line has to block and the QB has to make a throw. I think we can have more of an effect on the whole process in that scenario. That being said, Cooper is awesome.

Jamie:

That's like asking what burns more, this stovetop or this iron? Mariota is the leading candidate for the Heisman Trophy at this point, and he's amassed 4,106 total yards of offense and 47 touchdowns (in comparison, Boykin has 3,852 yards of offense and 34 touchdowns), but TCU has shown the ability to slow down, if not completely stifle, mobile quarterbacks. Meanwhile, the Frogs have been burned by the deep ball all year, and I don't know of anyone in the TCU secondary, or any secondary, that could hang with Amari Cooper.

Marsh:

Whatever context you want, Andrew :). But yeah, I think Mariota would be the bigger problem. Cooper is Bama’s biggest weapon, and really the only weapon that could beat TCU regularly. As they learned with Shep and Oklahoma--you can get away with a few big play touchdowns. But when it gets down to speedier depth, and a great quarterback, that’s where they get into trouble. Mariota is just too damn good. I don’t want to play him. Ever.

Marsh:

Who would the offense play better against?

Jamie:

This is where I contradict what I've said earlier. I think TCU's offense would play better against Alabama. They've show they're susceptible to getting beat by the long ball, and good quarterbacks they've faced (Bo Wallace, Dak Prescott and Nick Marshall), have combined to throw for 997 yards and eight touchdowns, and rush for 163 yards against them.

Melissa:

That's a tough question - Alabama only allows 320 yards per game, but they don't face the offenses week in and week out that you see in the Big 12 and Pac 12. When they have, they got torched by Auburn and WVU moved the ball pretty well on them, too. Oregon, on the other hand, gives up a ton of yards but has gotten some pretty good breaks as far of scheduling and hasn't faced some of the best offenses in the league this season, so they haven't given up a ton of points. But, opponents score 85% of the time in the red zone against them - that's just insane, and I am pretty confident TCU would convert at a high rate as well. Their one loss came to Arizona - a team with a good defense, an offense that doesn't turn it over much, and in a game that they ran the ball very well. Sound familiar? I think Oregon would be a shootout, and at that point, you're asking Boykin to out duel Mariota. So I guess that means I would rather see Bama, and see how they do against the Air Raid attack, but it's really a toss up in my mind.

Andrew:

The offense would probably have a little more success against Bama, in all honesty. The offense that TCU runs under Deuce Boogie is very similar to the Johnny Football offenses that A&M plagued the Crimson Tide for the last two years. I think they would struggle with it a lot more than an Oregon team that sees a similar, if not better version of the spread attack every day in practice.

Marsh:

Who’s in your Top 4. As in, who are the most deserving.

Nick:

Oregon- probably has the best resume out of everyone, my #1 unless they lose.  Alabama- They're in the SEC and have one loss (but a good one), so they're in.  Florida State- they're undefeated.  That's all they've got, but that's all they need for spot.  TCU- Is the team that everyone else is afraid of playing most at this moment.

It's a bit long, but I'm only throwing out one point- There's a lot of comparing schedules that's gone on this season as the Frogs have been jockeying for a playoff spot, but there's one thing that has been overlooked when comparing the Frogs to the other contending teams- the Frogs had the toughest stretch of a schedule, and it's not even close.

The Frogs played 8 weeks straight, starting on the road at a rival (albeit a bad one), following with a top 5 team at home, going immediately on the road to another top 5 team (and rival), back home against #15 and another rival (one that's had our number as well), on the road against #20 then back home for another top 10 opponent.  That's 7 straight weeks of monster games to get up for, and the Frogs did it with only one loss- on the road, by three points in mildly controversial fashion.  Alabama had only one back to back against top 25 teams (and had a bye in front of it), Ohio State had one back to back against top 25 teams- but has only played two top 25 teams total, Florida State had a bye between their top 25 back to back and Baylor had just one as well (if you want to count West Virginia as being ranked, since they were the week after they beat the Bears, otherwise they had none).

The only team with a remotely comparable stretch is Oregon, who played Arizona (currently #11), #18 UCLA and then a rival in the space of 23 days- a bit more of a break than the Frogs, but no slouch.  I don't think any team in the nation survives TCU's schedule with a better record than TCU, and I think most of the other contenders would have come out significantly worse.  That's the mark of a top team, and that's why TCU deserves a spot in the playoffs.

Andrew:

1. Bama - SEC bias be damned; they've earned it. 2. Oregon - A very close number two. 3. TCU - this could change this weekend depending on Baylor's performance, but this far the Frogs are playing like the third best team in the land. 4. Florida State - The right side of the win-loss column speaks for itself.

Marsh:

I hate my own question. The four best are; 1. Oregon 2. Alabama 3. TCU 4. Baylor. I give Oregon the edge because they still has the best win in college football. Good losses are still better than good wins, but the Ducks’ and Alabama’s losses are comparable; and are both to really good teams; Arizona and Ole Miss respectively. The four most deserving? The same, but take out Baylor and trade with Florida State. 28 games is a lot.

Jamie:

Alabama-They're peaking at the right moment, and they're going to be SEC champs. Oregon - Marcus Mariota is amazing, the Ducks are also peaking, and they have a revenge game coming up. TCU - Because duh. Baylor - Why? Because having two Big 12 teams in would be great, and I think they're better than Ohio State and FSU.

Marsh:

In a few sentences, sell me on TCU…

Jamie:

TCU has proven themselves as one of the best teams in the country, no doubt, with only one razor-thin loss to a very, very good team. I think the committee is recognizing the solid body of work, and is also noting the improvement that's taking place (especially after the Texas game). That, coupled with FSU consistently underperforming and Baylor/Ohio State's losses to not-good teams, and there you go.

Melissa:

I think the best argument in favor of the Frogs comes down to a couple things: how bad is it to lose to a good team by three on the road (Vegas sees that as basically a tie) after you were dominant for three quarters of it, and how competitive do you think they would be in the playoffs? TCU's D would come is as arguably the best in the final four, based on how they have played over the last several weeks, with Bama being the only other real competition - and Bama doesn't have to stop the Air Raid every week. TCU's O can put up the same numbers as any of the final four, and they have one of the two Heisman contenders at QB of the group. Baylor can't stop anyone as of late, Ohio State has lost some shine without JT Barrett, and both of those two teams have lost big to bad teams, something the Frogs did not do. The eye test is a subjective thing, but so far that seems to have worked in TCU's favor, and I don't see any reason why a big win against one last team should change that

Andrew:

They had one bad moment in a season that has otherwise spoiled a fan base that came into the year with unfortunately low expectations. The fact is, they started as a nationally perceived middle-of-the-road squad and forced the country to respect them. Wherever they end up when the playoff smoke settles, they will have earned it. So make the right choice committee: take the blue collar boys from Ft. Worth that made you notice them. Let them shock the world.

Marsh:

All of this I agree with. They--TCU--got beat, on the road, in a game they dominated 80% of, by 3, against a higher ranked team. I think Baylor deserves a playoff spot along with our beloved Frogs. But TCU’s looked better since that game, and that seems to be the general consensus. The kneejerk reaction and head-to-head argument is a flat circle at this point.

Baylor apologists will throw out "did you see TCU play Kansas or West Virginia?" I did. I saw that the former was a game in bad weather, on Kansas’ senior day, and had some of the luckiest, and most bizarre touchdowns I’ve seen in a long time. I also saw the West Virginia game. A game Baylor lost by 14 and TCU won by 1, in worse conditions. I also saw Baylor let Tech nearly beat them--a team that TCU put 82 on. I also saw the Baylor defense let Oklahoma State get quadruple the points they’d been scoring the 4 games previous leading up to it. So yeah, I’ve seen both teams play and TCU’s--by a hair--better.

Waving a 61-58 towels, and hiring a PR firm isn’t going to help Baylor’s case at all. No one needs to be reminded that the Bears won that game. Everyone knows. Like I said, they’re not doing themselves any favors. They’re really just making it worse. They also have to play a really, really good Kansas State game and no one is talking about that. All they can think about is how much they hate TCU. Well, Jake Waters has looked pretty damn good the past few weeks. Saturday night should be interesting.