FanPost

FOW B12 Game Predictions - Week #3 Stats

Statistics_made_easy_medium

As you can see, I shuffled this series over to FANPOST, partly as a mercy to the majority of FOW readers who couldn't care less about this, but also to have the room to expand a bit. And you thought that wasn't possible? Sorry this is late this week; I actually had the math part all done Sunday, but family problems and this new venue tripped me up. So let's get to it... this weeks players were usual MODS Tylervr, Coachmelissa, Marshall, Hawkeyed Frog, & Jamie Plunkett, and wannabe FANS FrogLiquor (FL), TCU'90, Disciplina (DEF), and new picker WhiskeyFrog (WF).


Leaderboard ____ w1 __ w2 __ w3 __ all __ %

1. FrogLiquor --------------- 9 - 0 ---- 8 - 0 ---- 9 - 0 ---- 26 - 0 ----- 1.000

2. TCU'90 -------------------- 9 - 0 ---- 8 - 0 ---- 8 - 1 ---- 25 - 1 ----- _.962

2. Tyler ----------------------- 9 - 0 ---- 8 - 0 ---- 8 - 1 ---- 25 - 1 ----- _.962

2. Melissa -------------------- 8 - 1 ---- 8 - 0 ---- 9 - 0 ---- 25 - 1 ----- _.962

2. Marshall ------------------- 8 - 1 ---- 8 - 0 ---- 9 - 0 ---- 25 - 1 ----- _.962

6. Hawkeyed ----------------- 8 - 1 ---- 8 - 0 ---- 8 - 1 ---- 24 - 2 ----- _.923

6. WhiskyFrog --------------- 8 - 1 ---- 8 - 0 ---- 8 - 1 ---- 24 - 2 ----- _.923

8. Jamie ---------------------- 8 - 1 ---- 6 - 2 ---- 8 - 1 ---- 22 - 4 ----- _.846

9. Disciplina ----------------- 9 - 0 ---- 6 - 2 ---- 6 - 3 ---- 21 - 5 ----- _.808

As you can see, we're all doing marvelously (better than most pros I see in the media), thanks to early season cupcake scheduling. You can also see why Jamie didn't want to include fans in the "official" posts... the fans are kickin' butt... but its very close so we'll be nice and just move on to a new feature...


Week #3's BEST picks for each game

  • BU over Buff, 63-21 ------ FrogLiquor (58-20) & TCU'90 (66-24) tied at 6 pts off
  • WV over Md, 40-37 ------ Marshall (38-28) was 11pts off
  • Duke over KU, 41-3 ------ Jamie (35-10) was 13 pts off
  • Ark over TT, 49-28 ------- Melissa (45-31) was 7 pts off
  • ISU over Iowa, 20-17 ---- DEF (21-14) & Whisky (24-17) tied at 4 pts off
  • OSU over UTSA, 43-13 -- DEF (42-12) was 2 pts off
  • UCLA over UT, 20-17 ---- Marshall (24-17) was 4 pts off
  • OU over Tenn, 34-10 ----- TCU'90 (37-17) & Whisky (41-13) tied at 10 pts off
  • TCU over Min, 30-7 ------ DEF (31-10) was 4 pts off

Congrats to DEF for having the single closest pick of the week (OSU), and also the most close picks (3). That's some pretty fancy shootin' there.


Accuracy Stats

5 mods + 4 fans made (W) and (L) picks for 9 games = 162 picks. The mods continue their dominance of exacta picks with 7... Jamie had 3 (Iowa/UT/Min), then 1 each by Marshall & Melissa (both UT), Hawk (Iowa), and Tyler (BU); the only fan exacta was Whisky (Iowa).

Total combined points were (W) 340 minus (L) 153 = (Margin of Victory) 187 pts... divided per game (9) is 37.78 - 17 = 20.78; pickers' rank scores below are their deviation from the actual score average (+ or -):

  • rank of (W) pts/game = Tyler (-0.34), Jamie (0.97), Marshall (1.64), Melissa (-2.11), TCU'90 (-4.22), FL (-4.56), Whisky (5.97), DEF (6.62), Hawk (7.44)
  • rank of (L) pts/game = Whisky (-0.12), Jamie (0.88), DEF (1.00), Tyler (1.22), TCU'90 (3.33), FL (4.56), Melissa (5.22), Marshall (6.00), Hawk (6.33)
  • TOTAL ACCURACY (W + L) = Tyler (-1.56), Jamie (1.85), Whisky (6.09), Melissa (7.33), tied: FL & TCU'90 (7.55), DEF (7.62), Marshall (7.64), Hawk (13.77)
  • rank of (MoV) pts/game = Jamie (0.10), Hawk (1.11), Tyler (-1.56), Marshall (-4.34), Whiskey (6.10), Melissa (-7.34), TCU'90 (-7.56), DEF (-7.65), FL (9.11)

There's a slight change in figuring the critical "Total Accuracy" stat; previously I added the scores for (W) + (L) + (MoV), but realized the MoV was redundant since it is merely the difference between W and L. It didn't make previous weeks' ranks wrong (it was purely proportional in difference)... it just isn't needed, so now I only add the W + L scores. We're still showing the MoV rankings because some like to compare this to Vegas odds; it shows how accurate you are to "cover the spread". Congrats to Jamie for his first "accuracy" win here. Meanwhile, we should all be blown away to see Tyler win his 3rd consecutive "total accuracy"; he clearly knows what he's doing.

So, there's a little something in here for almost everyone participating. I'm good at picking winners, but lousy at the score. Hawkeyed greatly overdoes his scores (and will keep right on doing it) but somehow knows the spreads dead on. Some areas we take turns being good and bad. Disciplina is half very right and half very wrong. Meanwhile, Melissa and Marshall linger quietly just barely behind the leader, waiting to make a move or for a mistake at the top? Its still early in this season, only about a quarter of the way; most of the big/tuff games lie before us. And the all-important leaderboard is jammed tightly, with little separation. Its still anybody's game!

This week is very very light... only 3 games involving a total of 4 B12 teams, but two of those could potentially have big effects in both conference and national ambitions. Anyone who wants to join the fun, its not too late. Do it for just a week whenever you can, or go for the season crown; its all up to you. The thing is to just have fun while following our great FROGS team.

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