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The Committee Got It Right - Or Did They?

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The first ever College Football Playoff Committee is sitting back and celebrating with cigars and 20 year old scotch. Their swagger is sky high right now and who could blame them?

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports


After weeks of harsh criticism from anyone and everyone who watches College Football, the Committee got it right.

Right?

The Committee faced massive backlash from TCU fans, alumni, some players, and even some analysts. Joey Galloway was a huge supporter for TCU during the entire process, while others, such as Kirk Herbstreit, could only focus on the 61-58 defeat from Baylor. In the end, the Committee went with Alabama, Oregon, Florida State, and Ohio State. Baylor checked in at six and TCU followed them up at seven.  So on the surface, it appears that the Committee got it right.

The fourth ranked Buckeyes upset top ranked Alabama and then turned around a week later and blasted second ranked Oregon for the National Title. The old BCS formula would have had Alabama vs. Florida State for the National Championship. We all know that would have been a snooze fest and we would have had to hear another year of the "SEC Dominance" agenda forced down our throats by the evil empire ESPN. So, when in regards to the College Football Playoff, it worked. We got a different championship game and we got a different champion.

The issue I have is not with the format, but with the committee and I’ll tell you why. I want to start with Week 10 simply because that was the first week that the playoff committee released their first rankings. I want us to focus our attention on three schools, TCU, Baylor, and Ohio State. Let’s be honest here, no one thought that Alabama, Oregon or Florida State would get bumped out right? We all know FSU wasn’t a top four team in the land but the committee had NO CHOICE but to keep FSU there.

TCU, Baylor, and OSU all checked in at 6-1 in their respective conferences. Baylor was coming off a road loss to unranked West Virginia, TCU was coming off a blowout win over unranked Texas Tech, and OSU was coming off a 2OT victory over unranked Penn State. Ohio State checked in at #16, Baylor at #13 and TCU at #7.

None of those three teams would lose again the rest of the season. The big picture says how does OSU jump 12 spots, Baylor jump eight spots, and TCU jump just one spot despite none of them losing? Let’s take a quick look at the schedules and some basic statistics:

Team

Record

Top 25 W’s

Points Scored

Points Allowed

Margin of W

OSU

6-0

3

278

130

24.7

Baylor

5-0

2

243

129

22.8

TCU

5-0

2

209

93

23.2



Looking at the big picture, it appears that the teams were pretty even down the stretch. A case could be made for any of those teams if you looked at only these parameters. It is clear that OSU benefited by the B1G Championship game, otherwise, they would have been behind both Baylor and TCU in all of the categories, and quite frankly, it wouldn’t have even been close (expect for points scored). Ok, so with that in mind, let’s break it down a little further.

Week 10:

#16 OSU beats unranked Illinois 55-14 at home

#13 Baylor beats unranked Kansas 60-14 at home

#7 TCU beats #20 West Virginia 31-30 on the road

New Ranking:

Ohio State #14

Baylor #12

TCU #6

Analysis:

Baylor and TCU move up one spot despite TCU beating a ranked team on the road. OSU beats a cupcake team in blowout fashion and moves up two spots. All records move to 7-1.

Week 11:

#14 OSU beats #8 Michigan State on the road 49-37

#12 Baylor beats #15 Oklahoma on the road 48-14

#6 TCU beats #7 Kansas State at home 41-20

New Ranking:

Ohio State #8

Baylor #7

TCU #4

Analysis:

All three teams get a win over a ranked opponent; OSU and Baylor do it on the road. OSU jumps six full spots, Baylor jumps five full spots and TCU jumps just two spots. All teams move to 8-1. After the first two weeks of the CFP Rankings, OSU jumps eight spots, Baylor jumps six and TCU jumps three.

Let’s stop here for a second. OSU beats a ranked and unranked team and moves eight spots and Baylor beats a ranked and unranked team and moves six spots. TCU beats two ranked teams and only moves three spots? Come on man. Explain that, Jeff Long.

Week 12:

#8 OSU beats #25 Minnesota 31-24 on the road

#6 Baylor has a bye

#4 TCU beats unranked Kansas 34-30 on the road

New Ranking:

Ohio State #6

Baylor #7

TCU #5

Analysis:

Baylor has a bye and falls one spot, OSU jumps two spots with their win over a top 25 teams and TCU falls a spot after struggling against Kansas. After three weeks of the new CFP Rankings, OSU has jumped 10 spots, Baylor jumps five and TCU two.

Week 13:

#6 OSU beats unranked Indiana 42-27 at home

#7 Baylor beats unranked Oklahoma State 49-28 at home

#5 TCU has a bye

New Ranking:

Ohio State #6

Baylor #7

TCU #5

Analysis:

All teams in a holding pattern as no one moves up or down. After four weeks of the new CFP Rankings, OSU has jumped 10 spots, Baylor jumps five and TCU two.

Week 14:

#6 OSU beats unranked Michigan 42-48 at home

#7 Baylor beats unranked Texas Tech 48-46 at a neutral location

#5 TCU beats unranked Texas 48-10 on the road

New Ranking:

Ohio State #5

Baylor #6

TCU #3

Analysis:

TCU moves up two spots after handing the Longhorns their worst loss ever at home, Baylor moves up to five despite struggling against unranked Texas Tech and OSU also moves up a spot. After five weeks of the new CFP Rankings, OSU has jumped 11 spots, Baylor jumps seven and TCU four.

Week 15:

#5 OSU beats #13 Wisconsin 59-0 on a neutral field (B1G Championship)

#6 Baylor beats #9 Kansas State 38-27 at home

#3 TCU beats unranked Iowa State 55-3 at home

New Ranking:

Ohio State #4

Baylor #5

TCU #6

Analysis:

TCU falls three spots after winning by 52, a game in which they took a knee in the red zone with five minutes to go. OSU blasts their way to the B1G Title and Baylor finishes its season off with a top 10 victory. After six weeks of the new CFP Rankings, OSU jumped 12 spots, Baylor jumps eight and TCU jumps one.

Those three teams all went undefeated down the stretch, all won with a similar margin of victory, and all had multiple top 25 wins. So what gives? Why did Baylor jump eight full spots despite playing the same schedule that TCU did? Why did OSU jump 12 full spots?

How in the hell does TCU fall three spots after winning by 52? One week after the Committee told me that TCU was better than FSU, OSU and Baylor. One week later, despite all teams winning, TCU is not as good as OSU and Baylor? Give me a break.

Baylor played the same schedule that TCU did minus the non-conference schedule, yet they jumped eight spots over TCU over a six week period? The CFP Committee rewarded Baylor for something that happened in early October but failed to punish them for their cupcake strength of schedule. 

Ohio State is more than justifiable in my mind. OSU beat three ranked teams during this six weeks, two on the road and one on a neutral field by 59 points. That can easily justify moving them up 12 spots and into a top four ranking. They did this despite losing their first AND second string quarterback during the season.

The things that I simply cannot justify is how Baylor was rewarded in the final rankings for beating TCU before the CFP Rankings came out and how they weren’t punished for the weak non-conference schedule. I can’t justify how OSU was not punished in the final rankings for losing to unranked Virginia Tech at home by 14 points, before the CFP Rankings were released. And I can’t justify how TCU was punished in the final rankings for losing to Baylor before the CFP Rankings came out and were not rewarded for their non-conference schedule.

I cannot justify those things. It does not make any sense to me that Baylor and OSU were rewarded for things that TCU was punished for and TCU was punished for things that Baylor and OSU weren’t. I can’t justify how TCU only moved up one spot in six weeks despite playing the same conference schedule as Baylor.

Despite all of these things, the Committee looks great right now and they look like they got it right because the Buckeyes are your National Champions. I still feel like TCU should have been #4 because I honestly and truly believe that TCU is a better team than Baylor and has the defense to play with the Buckeyes. I would love to see the Frogs play the Buckeyes on a neutral field and apparently did the crowd at the National Championship Game last night. The photo featured at the top was the sign that was seen on the sidelines during the game last night.

Hindsight is 20-20 and its hard to argue that TCU should have been in over OSU at this point, but no one believed that OSU would win the National Title with their 3rd string quarterback. If someone tells you they believed that, they are lying to you.

One thing is clear, TCU is better than Baylor. That was proven after Baylor blew a 21 point fourth quarter lead to Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl and TCU slaughtered Ole Miss 42-3.  I won’t argue that anymore with anyone. Go away.

We will never know how this TCU team would have stacked up against this OSU team. TCU was a victim of unfortunate circumstances, recent game bias, and the lack of a Big 12 Championship game. Maybe we can settle this debate in 2018 and 2019 when TCU and Ohio State start a home and home non-conference series.

Until then, I guess the Committee got it right.

Enjoy your cigars and scotch, Jeff Long.

Billy is a part time writer for Frogs ‘O War and senior staff writer for ShutdownInning.com. You can find him on twitter @bcasey55 or by email billy@shutdowninning.com