Texas upset No. 12 Baylor 23-17 today, clarifying bowl situations for the top-quarter of the Big 12. Oklahoma, sitting at No. 3 in the CFP, seems bound for the playoff.
Now that Baylor has dropped to 9-3 on the season they fall to fourth in the Big 12. TCU and Oklahoma State are tied for second, both with 10-2 records, and Oklahoma State holds the head-to-head tiebreaker. Thus, Oklahoma State will be invited to the Sugar Bowl, where they'll most likely face Ole Miss (barring a massive upset in the SEC Championship).
Meanwhile, TCU is almost assuredly heading to the Valero Alamo Bowl. The Alamo Bowl has the first choice of remaining Big 12 teams after the CFP and NY6 bowls are all settled, and it's fairly predictable that they'll choose TCU over Baylor.
Of course, there is the incredibly, incredibly small chance that TCU gets a New Year 6 bid. For that to happen, the following would ALL need to take place.
- Iowa beats Michigan State so badly they fall behind TCU in the rankings
- USC beats Stanford so bad they fall behind TCU in the rankings
- Clemson beats North Carolina
And even then, it would come down to Florida State or TCU.
So, let's all prepare to go to San Antonio and cheer the Frogs on against Oregon.