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The TCU Horned Frogs finished the regular season with a 17-14 record before going 1-1 in the Big 12 Tournament. That puts TCU at 18-15, firmly on the NIT bubble. The Frogs will be sweating it out tonight during the NIT Selection Show. TCU has a decent shot to get in to the field, but even if they don't, the season might not be over. Let's take a look at a couple of the potential postseason destinations for the Frogs.
National Invitation Tournament (NIT)
The NIT is definitely the most prestigious of the non-NCAA Tournament postseason destinations. The NIT was founded in 1938 and, under its current format, invites 32 teams to participate each year. The top seeds have the opportunity to host games at their campus venues, but the national semifinals and championship game are played at Madison Square Garden.
Prior to 2007, the NIT was run by an independent third party and invited 40 teams. However, in 2007, the NCAA took control of the event and made a few changes. The biggest change was that the field was contracted from 40 to 32 teams. Additionally, the NCAA removed an old rule stating that a team must have a winning record to participate. Despite the rule change, no team with a losing record has ever been invited to join the field.
There are two new rules changes for 2015. After the NCAA Tournament field is revealed, the "First Four Out" will be announced. These four teams will be the four #1 seeds in the NIT and have the opportunity to host up until the national semifinals. Also in 2015, the Tournament will utilize a 30-second shot clock and feature a wide restricted circle under the basket. The NCAA hopes to gain valuable information from these rule changes in an effort to increase pace of play in the regular season.
The NIT awards automatic bids to teams that win their conference in the regular season but fail to earn an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament through their conference tournament. As of this morning, 12 teams have earned bids this way:
Team |
Conference |
Bucknell |
Patriot League |
California-Davis |
Big West Conference |
Central Michigan |
Mid-American Conference |
Charleston-Southern |
Big South Conference |
Iona |
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference |
Louisiana Tech |
Conference USA |
Montana |
Big Sky Conference |
Murray State |
Ohio Valley Conference |
North Carolina Central |
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference |
Saint Francis - New York |
Northeast Conference |
South Dakota State |
Summit League |
William & Mary |
Colonial Athletic Association |
That would leave 20 potential spots for TCU. As was mentioned previously, the Frogs are securely on the NIT bubble. Past data certainly suggests that TCU could get in, but it's going to be close. Since the format changes in 2007, the Big 12 has received 13 NIT bids. The average record of these 13 teams heading into the event was 19-13. The Big 12 has gotten three teams with similar records as TCU into the event, with the 2010 Texas Tech Red Raiders being the most similar. That squad finished 17-15 in the regular season and 4-12 in Big 12 play.
Big 12 Appearances in the NIT (Since 2007) |
||||
Year |
Seed |
School |
Overall Record |
Big 12 Record |
2007 |
2 |
Kansas State |
22-11 |
10-6 |
2007 |
2 |
Oklahoma State |
22-12 |
6-10 |
2008 |
3 |
Nebraska |
19-12 |
7-9 |
2008 |
5 |
Oklahoma State |
17-15 |
7-9 |
2009 |
3 |
Baylor |
20-14 |
5-11 |
2009 |
4 |
Kansas State |
21-11 |
9-7 |
2009 |
6 |
Nebraska |
18-12 |
8-8 |
2010 |
5 |
Texas Tech |
17-15 |
4-12 |
2011 |
1 |
Colorado |
21-13 |
8-8 |
2011 |
3 |
Oklahoma State |
19-13 |
6-10 |
2011 |
5 |
Nebraska |
19-12 |
7-9 |
2013 |
2 |
Baylor |
18-14 |
9-9 |
2014 |
5 |
West Virginia |
17-15 |
9-9 |
The Frogs have been to the NIT six times in program history, most recently in 2005. All-time, TCU is 9-6 in the Tournament, advancing to the Quarterfinals three different times. The NIT Selection Show is tonight at 7:30pm on ESPN. Until then, it's going to be an anxious waiting game for the Frogs.
College Basketball Invitational (CBI)
The CBI is an independent postseason tournament that was founded in 2007 and is run by the Gazelle Group. The CBI invites 16 teams that were left out of both the NCAA and NIT fields. The Tournament uses a single-elimination bracket format up until the Championship, in which a best-of-three series is used to crown a winner. The top seeds are given the opportunity to host the early rounds, then in the Championship Series, the higher seed gets to host the first and third game while the lower seed hosts the second game.
The CBI recently announced that it would also be using a 30-second shot clock and wider restricted circle in 2015, just like the NIT.
Since the first CBI in 2008, 16 different power conference schools have participated. 11 of those 16 schools entered the event with a record at or below 0.500. Texas is the only Big 12 team ever to participate in the event, in 2010. That year, the Longhorns finished with a 16-17 record overall and a 7-11 mark in conference play.
Power Conference Teams in the CBI |
||||
Year |
School |
Record |
Conference |
Conf. Record |
2008 |
Cincinnati |
13-18 |
Big East |
8-10 |
2008 |
Virginia |
15-15 |
ACC |
9-7 |
2008 |
Washington |
16-16 |
Pac-12 |
7-11 |
2009 |
Oregon State |
13-17 |
Pac-12 |
8-11 |
2009 |
Stanford |
18-13 |
Pac-12 |
8-11 |
2009 |
St. John's |
16-17 |
Big East |
6-12 |
2010 |
Oregon State |
14-17 |
Pac-12 |
8-10 |
2011 |
Oregon |
16-17 |
Pac-12 |
7-11 |
2012 |
Oregon State |
19-14 |
Pac-12 |
7-11 |
2012 |
Pittsburgh |
19-11 |
Big East |
5-13 |
2012 |
Washington State |
15-16 |
Pac-12 |
7-11 |
2013 |
Texas |
16-17 |
Big 12 |
7-11 |
2013 |
Purdue |
15-17 |
Big Ten |
8-10 |
2014 |
Oregon State |
16-15 |
Pac-12 |
8-10 |
2014 |
Penn State |
15-17 |
Big Ten |
6-12 |
2014 |
Texas A&M |
17-15 |
SEC |
8-10 |
Based on this data, the Frogs certainly have accomplished enough to warrant an invitation to the event. However, it is important to note that not all teams that are invited actually accept the invitations. In the past, Maryland and Texas Tech declined invitations. Several similar programs, including Michigan, Indiana, Kansas State, and Northwestern, have already announced that they will not accept invitations to this year's CBI.
It is hard to determine where the TCU coaching staff and Athletic Department stand on the issue, but here are a couple of things to keep in mind: the CBI is a pay-for-play tournament. The teams that accept their invitations are charged a fee to participate. Additionally, should the Frogs receive an invitation, they will likely be one of the top-seeds in the event, meaning that they would get to host games. Since a return to Wilkerson-Greines seems somewhat unlikely, TCU could either decline their opportunity to host, or decline their invitation altogether.
However, the Frogs did earn and accept an invitation in 2012, hosting a first round contest against Milwaukee. TCU later fell to Oregon State in the Quarterfinals in what was their only appearance in the event. The good news here is that TCU and the CBI are familiar with each other, so that bodes well as far as earning (and accepting) a bid is concerned.
The CBI field will be announced later tonight, after the NCAA and NIT fields are revealed.
CollegeInsider.com Postseason Tournament (CIT)
Finally, the CIT is a 32-team tournament founded in 2009 and run by CollegeInsider.com. The CIT uses a single-elimination format and does not allow teams with losing records to participate. Unlike the CBI and NIT, the CIT focuses exclusively on mid-major teams. In fact, no power conference team has ever participated in the event. That's not to say that one won't be invited, but it has never happened before.
Also unlike the NIT and CBI, the CIT has already invited teams and has begun to fill out their bracket. As of today, 22 of the 32 spots have been filled, and it does not look like TCU will occupy one of the remaining 10.
2015 CIT Field (22 of 32 Spots Filled) |
|
Team |
Conference |
Bowling Green |
Mid-American Conference |
Canisius |
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference |
Cleveland State |
Horizon League |
Dartmouth |
Ivy League |
Eastern Illinois |
Ohio Valley Conference |
Eastern Kentucky |
Ohio Valley Conference |
Evansville |
Missouri Valley Conference |
Florida Gulf Coast |
Atlantic Sun Conference |
Incarnate Word |
Southland Conference |
Indiana-Purdue-Fort Wayne |
Summit League |
James Madison |
Colonial Athletic Association |
New Hampshire |
America East Conference |
New Jersey Institute of Technology |
NCAA Division I Independent |
Norfolk State |
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference |
Northwestern State |
Southland Conference |
Oakland |
Horizon League |
Portland |
West Coast Conference |
Saint Francis - Pennsylvania |
Northeast Conference |
South Carolina - Upstate |
Atlantic Sun Conference |
Tennessee - Martin |
Ohio Valley Conference |
Texas A&M - Corups Christi |
Southland Conference |
Western Michigan |
Mid-American Conference |
If the Frogs do not earn an NIT bid and if the school declines a CBI invitation, the potential exists that the 2014-2015 TCU basketball season could be over. Right now, the best bet for postseason play is likely for the Frogs to sneak into the NIT as an at-large team, only because it is unknown whether or not TCU would accept their CBI invitation.
The program hasn't been in this situation very often recently, so sit back, and enjoy a meaningful Selection Sunday!