Potential Big 12 Tournament Opponents for TCU

Update (3/7/15, 5:45pm): Texas defeated Kansas State 62-49 in Austin this afternoon. As a result, the Wildcats will be the #8 seed in the Big 12 Tournament. TCU and Kansas State will face off in the First Round on Wednesday night at 6:00pm in Kansas City. The winner of that contest will face the #1 seed Kansas Jayhawks on Thursday at 1:30pm.

The Horned Frogs and Wildcats split the season series with the home team winning each contest. Kansas State defeated TCU 58-53 in Manhattan in January then the Frogs extracted revenge with a 69-55 win in Fort Worth last month.

Stay tuned for more Big 12 Tournament coverage in the coming days.

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Update (3/4/15, 10:12pm): Oklahoma State defeated TCU 82-70 tonight in Stillwater, therefore the Frogs will get either the Texas Longhorns or the Kansas State Wildcats in the First Round of the Big 12 Tournament. The scenario is simple. The loser of this Saturday's Kansas State at Texas game will be the #8 seed in the Big 12 and face TCU in the First Round.

Here are the updated scenarios, in order of likelihood:

(8) Kansas State vs. (9) TCU:

• Texas defeats Kansas State in Austin on Saturday

(8) Texas vs. (9) TCU:

• Kansas State defeats Texas in Austin on Saturday

Kansas State and Texas tip things off on Saturday at 3:00pm, televised nationally on ESPN2.

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Update (3/2/15, 8:45pm): Texas did it! The Longhorns knocked off #14 Baylor 61-59 in overtime down in Austin. TCU's hope to avoid Texas in the First Round of the Big 12 Tournament is alive.

Here are the updated scenarios:

(8) Texas vs. (9) TCU:

• Texas loses to Kansas State in Austin on Saturday
  

(8) Kansas State vs. (9) TCU:

• Texas beats Kansas State in Austin on Saturday, AND
• Oklahoma State wins at least one of their final two games (vs. TCU, at West Virginia)

(8) Oklahoma State vs. (9) TCU:

• Texas beats Kansas State in Austin on Saturday, AND
• Oklahoma State loses out (vs. TCU, at West Virginia)

TCU travels to Oklahoma State on Wednesday, and if the Frogs come away victorious, they'll have a pretty good shot at facing the Cowboys again in Kansas City next week.

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Original Post (3/2/15, 1:35pm): The 2015 Big 12 Conference Tournament tips off next Wednesday in Kansas City, and the TCU Horned Frogs are guaranteed to play in the Tournament's opening game. By defeating Texas Tech last week, TCU locked themselves into the 9-seed, meaning the Frogs will face off against the 8-seed in the First Round. TCU's opponent is yet to be determined but we know that it will either be Texas, Kansas State, or Oklahoma State.

There are four games remaining that will impact the teams that finish 6^th through 8^th in the Big 12, beginning with Texas hosting Baylor tonight. If the Bears defeat the Longhorns, it is all over and Texas will lock into the 8-seed and will face TCU in the First Round. The Longhorns swept the Frogs this season, winning by an average margin of 20.5 points per game. Texas presents numerous matchup problems for the Frogs, so TCU definitely wants to avoid a third meeting with their Lone Star State rivals.

However, if Texas can beat the Bears at home tonight (as if you needed one more reason to root against Baylor), the Frogs will have a much better shot at avoiding UT in Kansas City. Texas hosts Kansas State on Saturday, and if the Longhorns can take care of business again at home, UT and KSU will finish with identical 8-10 records. Texas would hold the tiebreaker over Kansas State by virtue of sweeping the season series with the Wildcats. As a result, TCU would avoid having to play Texas to begin the Big 12 Tournament.

Here is where the Frogs come into play yet again. If TCU knocks off Oklahoma State in Stillwater on Wednesday, and Texas wins out against Baylor and Kansas State, and West Virginia beats Oklahoma State in Morgantown on Saturday, the Frogs would get to play the Cowboys in the first round. This is the least likely scenario, but the most favorable for TCU, as the Frogs would have swept the season series with the Pokes.

If Texas wins out and Oklahoma State wins one of their next two games (vs. TCU or at WVU), then the Frogs will play Kansas State in the first round. This is a mildly probable scenario, but it all depends on the Longhorns. The eyes of TCU will be upon Texas this week - the bottom line is that the Frogs need Texas to win out to avoid the Longhorns.

Here are the possible Big 12 Tournament First Round scenarios, explained a little bit more clearly:

(8) Texas vs. (9) TCU:

• Texas loses one of their final two games (vs. Baylor, vs. Kansas State)

(8) Kansas State vs. (9) TCU:

• Texas wins out (vs. Baylor, vs. Kansas State), AND
• Oklahoma State wins at least one of their final two games (vs. TCU, at West Virginia)

(8) Oklahoma State vs. (9) TCU:

• Texas wins out (vs. Baylor, vs. Kansas State), AND
• Oklahoma State loses out (vs. TCU, at West Virginia)

Games that will determine TCU's First Round opponent:

Tonight: Baylor at Texas, 6:00pm on ESPN (If Baylor wins, the rest are inconsequential. Hook ‘em.)

Wednesday: TCU at Oklahoma State, 8:00pm on ESPNU (Go Frogs.)

Saturday: Oklahoma State at West Virginia, 1:00pm on ESPNNews (Only matters if UT defeats KSU later in the day.)

Saturday: Kansas State at Texas, 3:00pm on ESPN2 (You mean we have to root for Texas twice in one week? Yes. I'm sorry.)

Winning a game in the Big 12 Tournament could go a long way toward strengthening TCU's potential NIT resume. Matchups are going to be critical for TCU's chances of winning their First Round game. Avoiding another matchup with the Longhorns would be a significant step toward advancing to the Quarterfinals. After that, all bets are off. After all, it's called March Madness for a reason, right?