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Underdogs No More: the 2019 Frogs O’ War Pick ‘Em Challenge – Week 11

Week 10 was a dud, maybe the underdogs can rise up in Week 11

Oregon State v Arizona
Oregon State’s win over Arizona as 5.5-point underdogs was the key game in a sleepy week
Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Week 10 Recap

What was projected to be a lame week of football was indeed a lame week of football. 46% of our entrants went goose-egg, whiffing on all five choices. It only took a single win worth 3 points to reach the Top 10 leader board this week. There were only 11 upsets, with the only notable one being App State’s elimination from the G5 NY6 discussion at the hands of Georgia Southern on Thursday night. The other upsets were so small that they aren’t worth mentioning, although Miami’s drubbing of the Seminoles as 3.5-point underdogs in Tallahassee led to the end of the Willie Taggart era at Florida State. The game that tipped the scales for our little weekly competition was Oregon State’s upset of Arizona – the Beavers have been fun all season and have been a great underdog to ride. I unfortunately did not this week, allowing Victory Cigars for Everyone to pick up its 2nd win of the season.

Week 10’s Top 10

The stellar performance by VCfE allowed its lead to be further extended over the field. I was able to have a successful week, moving back into 2nd place by leaping Mike Honcho’s All Stars, but still have quite a bit of work to do if Yours Truly is going to retake the top spot. Come to Daddy... was the only new entrant into the Top 10, but competition is stiff to stay in the Top 10, as only 4 points separate #8 from #13. Our biggest climb up the leaderboard was Tcunj, whose 7 points jumped him five spots, into the Top 25, at #23 overall. You can still make your own leap up the leaderboard and earn weekly prizes, so join now.

Overall Top 10 after Week 10

Week 11 Picks

Many of the games I liked early in the week, the lines have shrunk (WKU, UAB) or the favorite has flipped (Tennessee, Northwestern, ASU). There’s also the game in Fort Worth, where the line is confounding: 4-4 TCU with (maybe) no QB is playing undefeated Baylor and the Bears are favored by less than a FG. Maybe this is a “throw the records out in a rivalry” situation, but oddsmakers are begging bettors to put their money behind Baylor, so there must be some belief that the Frogs can take this one. I wish the number was like 7.5, but it’s too low for me this week. I know I’m leaving some winnable games on the table this week, but seeing as my slow-and-steady plan didn’t exactly work out last week, the time is now to go further out on a limb and make a push for #1.

1. Kansas State (+7) vs. Texas – I will take this purple underdog though. The line being this high worries me – K-State has looked the better team most of the season while the Longhorns have been hobbled and sloppy. Perhaps TEXAS IS BACK healthy and ready to pull a win at home, but I think these teams may not be equal in talent but are equal in execution, so I’ll take those 7 points.

2. Appalachian State (+5) vs. South Carolina – Yes, App St. just lost, giving away likely its best chance to ever make the NY6. Yes, South Carolina beat Georgia in Athens this season. So what, the Mountaineers go on the road and get an SEC win.

3. Liberty (+17) vs. BYU – Provo can be a very difficult place to play and BYU has stacked up some impressive wins this season and are coming off an absolute demolition of Utah State. But BYU has also lost to USF and Toledo this season. I have no interest in rooting for Liberty, and they likely lose this game, but just think the 17 points is far too many and I need to book a big win to move towards the top overall spot. This game opened at 20.5, so maybe the value is already out of the line, but there is clearly some money backing the Flames

4. Florida State (+2.5) vs. Boston College – FSU is falling apart, and being an underdog to Boston College is certainly unacceptable for the Seminoles. The mid-season coach firing can go one of two ways: either the team mails it in, stops trying, gives up on the season and focuses on their academic opportunities staying healthy for the NFL, or it lights a fire under them and the team rallies around the interim coach and the team looks poised for a bounce back the following year. Now, nothing has really indicated that FSU will be motivated at all, as they’ve looked mostly terrible since the 1st half of the first game of the season. Cam Akers cancels out the AJ Dillon factor, as both teams have a dynamic RB capable of blowing up the game, but FSU likely has better players at every other position.

5. Utah State (+6) vs. Fresno State – The Aggies have now looked terrible two weeks in a row, Jordan Love has not lived up to the hype, and it has become clear how much it hurt to lose head coach Matt Wells. Fresno is clearly the better team, but has been susceptible to the weird loss as well. I think this line should probably be more like 3-3.5, so with a little extra juice it’s worth taking a shot on the Aggies.


Your Picks

There are certainly some great games on the schedule this week (the AP #1 team is an underdog and an 8-0 team is a TD underdog at home), and there should be much more excitement than last week generated. Fill out your selections in the form below or click HERE if your browser doesn’t show the form on this page. Remember to get your picks in before the start of games you select – Week 11 Schedule. Good luck!