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Selection Sunday Resume Review

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Which teams will receive the final at-large bids into the NCAA Tournament?

TCU Basketball vs University of Louisiana Monroe, November 10, 2017.
Will SuperFrog and TCU be dancing on Selection Sunday?
Melissa Triebwasser

Now that all the auto-bids that could impact the Bubble race have been decided, let’s embrace debate and determine which teams deserve the final at-large bids to the NCAA Tournament. Below are the contenders, all compared using the same info. These 13 squads are all fighting for 7 remaining available at-large positions, four of which would head to Dayton for the play-in games to get into the main event. You know where my heart stands in this argument, but after reviewing the below comparative facts, can the head agree? After reviewing these details, which 3 teams do you think should get the Bye into the field of 64 and which 4 should get the chance to earn entry via the play-in games?

TCU (20-13)

  • Team sheet facts: NET: 52, KPI: 39, SOR: 44… ESPN BPI: 50, KenPom: 48 Sagarin: 39
  • Average NET Win: 116
  • Average NET Loss: 37
  • Strength of Schedule: 41
  • Q1 Wins: 3 (NET Avg: 26), Q2 Wins: 6 (NET Avg: 62)
  • Q3 Losses: 0 (NET Avg: NA), Q4 Losses: 0 (NET Avg: NA), Total Q4 games played: 4
  • Best Win: Away, #21 Iowa State
  • Worst Loss: Away, #106 West Virginia (Q2)

Ohio State (19-14)

  • Team sheet facts: NET: 55, KPI: 50, SOR: 37… ESPN BPI: 40, KenPom: 44 Sagarin: 41
  • Average NET Win: 130
  • Average NET Loss: 37
  • Strength of Schedule: 51
  • Q1 Wins: 4 (NET Avg: 45), Q2 Wins: 5 (NET Avg: 63)
  • Q3 Losses: 1 (NET Avg: 109), Q4 Losses: 0 (NET Avg: NA), Total Q4 games played: 5
  • Best Win: Away, #25 Cincinnati
  • Worst Loss: Home, #109 Illinois (Q3)

Arizona State (22-10)

  • Team sheet facts: NET: 63, KPI: 34, SOR: 55… ESPN BPI: 60, KenPom: 61 Sagarin: 52
  • Average NET Win: 127
  • Average NET Loss: 103
  • Strength of Schedule: 70
  • Q1 Wins: 3 (NET Avg: 23), Q2 Wins: 8 (NET Avg: 74)
  • Q3 Losses: 2 (NET Avg: 130), Q4 Losses: 2 (NET Avg: 193), Total Q4 games played: 8
  • Best Win: Neutral, #19 Mississippi St.
  • Worst Loss: Home, #206 Washington St. (Q4)

NC State (22-11)

  • Team sheet facts: NET: 33, KPI: 66, SOR: 31… ESPN BPI: 26, KenPom: 32 Sagarin: 26
  • Average NET Win: 184
  • Average NET Loss: 36
  • Strength of Schedule: 179
  • Q1 Wins: 3 (NET Avg: 34), Q2 Wins: 5 (NET Avg: 81)
  • Q3 Losses: 2 (NET Avg: 155), Q4 Losses: 0 (NET Avg: NA), Total Q4 games played: 10
  • Best Win: Home, #18 Auburn
  • Worst loss: Away, #184 Wake Forest (Q3)

Temple (23-9)

  • Team sheet facts: NET: 56, KPI: 43, SOR: 45… ESPN BPI: 72, KenPom: 76 Sagarin: 68
  • Average NET Win: 150
  • Average NET Loss: 50
  • Strength of Schedule: 83
  • Q1 Wins: 2 (NET Avg: 19), Q2 Wins: 6 (NET Avg: 79)
  • Q3 Losses: 1 (NET Avg: 110), Q4 Losses: 0 (NET Avg: NA), Total Q4 games played: 8
  • Best Win: Home, #4 Houston
  • Worst loss: Home, #110 Penn (Q3)

St. John’s (21-12)

  • Team sheet facts: NET: 73, KPI: 41, SOR: 53… ESPN BPI: 69, KenPom: 79 Sagarin: 65
  • Average NET Win: 144
  • Average NET Loss: 62
  • Strength of Schedule: 73
  • Q1 Wins: 5 (NET Avg: 34), Q2 Wins: 5 (NET Avg: 71)
  • Q3 Losses: 2 (NET Avg: 184), Q4 Losses: 0 (NET Avg: NA), Total Q4 games played: 8
  • Best Win: Away, #28 Marquette
  • Worst loss: Home, #102 DePaul (Q3)

UNC-Greensboro (26-6)

  • Team sheet facts: NET: 60, KPI: 61, SOR: 33… ESPN BPI: 78, KenPom: 81 Sagarin: 90
  • Average NET Win: 216
  • Average NET Loss: 17
  • Strength of Schedule: 108
  • Q1 Wins: 2 (NET Avg: 57), Q2 Wins: 2 (NET Avg: 57)
  • Q3 Losses: 0 (NET Avg: NA), Q4 Losses: 0 (NET Avg: NA), Total Q4 games played: 15
  • Best Win: Neutral, #41 Furman
  • Worst loss: Away, #41 Furman (Q1)

Creighton (17-14)

  • Team sheet facts: NET: 53, KPI: 44, SOR: 60… ESPN BPI: 45, KenPom: 50 Sagarin: 48
  • Average NET Win: 113
  • Average NET Loss: 49
  • Strength of Schedule: 16
  • Q1 Wins: 3 (NET Avg: 44), Q2 Wins: 6 (NET Avg: 76)
  • Q3 Losses: 0 (NET Avg: NA), Q4 Losses: 0 (NET Avg: NA), Total Q4 games played: 3
  • Best Win: Away, #28 Marquette
  • Worst loss: Home, #73 St. John’s (Q2)

VCU (25-7)

  • Team sheet facts: NET: 34, KPI: 32, SOR: 41… ESPN BPI: 36, KenPom: 37 Sagarin: 51
  • Average NET Win: 157
  • Average NET Loss: 90
  • Strength of Schedule: 53
  • Q1 Wins: 2 (NET Avg: 54), Q2 Wins: 3 (NET Avg: 81)
  • Q3 Losses: 3 (NET Avg: 127), Q4 Losses: 0 (NET Avg: NA), Total Q4 games played: 11
  • Best Win: Away, #38 Texas
  • Worst loss: Neutral, #137 Rhode Island (Q3)

Belmont (25-5)

  • Team sheet facts: NET: 47, KPI: 62, SOR: 39… ESPN BPI: 46, KenPom: 54 Sagarin: 60
  • Average NET Win: 233
  • Average NET Loss: 107
  • Strength of Schedule: 196
  • Q1 Wins: 2 (NET Avg: 47), Q2 Wins: 3 (NET Avg: 101)
  • Q3 Losses: 2 (NET Avg: 176), Q4 Losses: 0 (NET Avg: NA), Total Q4 games played: 17
  • Best Win: Away, #44 Murray St.
  • Worst loss: Away, #221 Green Bay (Q3)

Lipscomb (25-7)

  • Team sheet facts: NET: 49, KPI: 77, SOR: 59… ESPN BPI: 51, KenPom: 53 Sagarin: 77
  • Average NET Win: 235
  • Average NET Loss: 71
  • Strength of Schedule: 213
  • Q1 Wins: 2 (NET Avg: 55), Q2 Wins: 2 (NET Avg: 85)
  • Q3 Losses: 1 (NET Avg: 227), Q4 Losses: 0 (NET Avg: NA), Total Q4 games played: 17
  • Best Win: Away, #52 TCU
  • Worst loss: Away, #227 FGCU (Q3)

Syracuse (20-13)

  • Team sheet facts: NET: 42, KPI: 36, SOR: 36… ESPN BPI: 33, KenPom: 34 Sagarin: 33
  • Average NET Win: 125
  • Average NET Loss: 38
  • Strength of Schedule: 8
  • Q1 Wins: 3 (NET Avg: 27), Q2 Wins: 3 (NET Avg: 90)
  • Q3 Losses: 2 (NET Avg: 113), Q4 Losses: 0 (NET Avg: NA), Total Q4 games played: 4
  • Best Win: Away, #3 Duke
  • Worst loss: Home, #126 Georgia Tech(Q3)

Alabama (18-15)

  • Team sheet facts: NET: 59, KPI: 48, SOR: 56… ESPN BPI: 63, KenPom: 60 Sagarin: 55
  • Average NET Win: 112
  • Average NET Loss: 42
  • Strength of Schedule: 14
  • Q1 Wins: 3 (NET Avg: 20), Q2 Wins: 7 (NET Avg: 61)
  • Q3 Losses: 2 (NET Avg: 103), Q4 Losses: 0 (NET Avg: NA), Total Q4 games played: 3
  • Best Win: Home, #6 Kentucky
  • Worst loss: Home, #121 Georgia St. (Q3)

Resume comparison visualization

Final Verdict:

What I think should happen, using this view:

  • Byes: Syracuse, VCU, TCU
  • Play-In Bids: Ohio State, NC State, St. John’s, Temple
  • NIT: Creighton, UNC Greensboro, Arizona St, Alabama, Belmont, Lipscomb

This is very difficult - each of these teams has something they could point to as a reason for inclusion over any of the other teams. I swapped these around many times, and honestly would not be surprised by any outcome the Committee delivers. Diving in though, I found the case for the mid-majors to be quite weak, with Greensboro at the top due to no bad losses and a stronger schedule. The Creighton-St. John’s debate is a tough one, the Bluejays have a better overall resume, but fewer top-tier wins and got swept by the Red Storm in the regular season. I find the VCU resume to be pretty low as well, given how bad the A-10 was this season, but all the prognosticators and national media just love them (but but, they won at Texas! Guess who else won at Texas and has 5 more wins better than VCU’s 2nd best win??). It’s probably most likely that if TCU does get into the field that the Frogs will head to Dayton for a play-in game, but with my purple-tinted glasses, I still think TCU has a chance at a Bye into the field of 64.

Look, there is a Committee involved, so I am certainly skeptical that this will go well for the Horned Frogs, but TCU has put together a strong resume that compares favorably in many ways to each of these other contenders. If TCU is omitted from the final field, an argument could be levied against each of these, detailing why the Frogs should be included instead. We’ll cross that bridge if we come to it. The bracket reveal will be high drama and it will be a long nervous wait to get to the Selection Show.


Conference breakdown of the Bubble race