clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Bunnell’s Bounces: Let’s turn things around

New, 1 comment

After Wednesday’s game against Providence, TCU is now 2-4 against the spread and 4-2 on the over/under.

NCAA Basketball: Oklahoma at Texas Christian Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

TCU basketball has now lost two consecutive games after falling to Providence 79-70 at Schollmaier Arena on Wednesday. Even though today’s game isn’t a conference matchup, winning is crucial to get the Frogs back on the right track this year.

Through six games, it’s becoming more and more evident that RJ Nembhard and Mike Miles are now our go-to guys for some buckets. Nembhard is currently averaging 17.4 points per game on 42.9% shooting percentage while Miles has 12.8 PPG shooting exactly 50% from the field.

Something I noticed in the last game against the Friars, we NEED to feed Kevin Samuel the ball in the post. There were several occasions where Providence’s 1-2-2 half court press would leave wide open gaps near the paint, though the angles made it difficult to fit a pass through. When the Frogs did get off the open pass or lob to K-Sam down low, it was an easy two points.

Samuel is nearly averaging a double double this season as he currently has 9.3 points per game and 10.8 rebounds per game.

TCU failed to cover the spread last game bringing their overall record to 2-4 against the spread this season. As for the over/under, the over cashed with roughly six minutes left on the clock so it’s safe to say my pick last week was a lock. The Horned Frogs have now hit the over in four of their six games this year.

Today’s matchup against Texas A&M is expected to be another close game as the oddsmakers have set the line as a one-point spread in TCU’s favor.

The Aggies have racked up three wins over low-tier teams such as New Orleans and UT Grande Valley so the Frogs will be their toughest test yet, especially on the road in Fort Worth.

Let’s see where Vegas has the rest of the lines set for today’s early-afternoon matchup:

TCU vs Texas A&M

  • Tip-off: 1:00 p.m. CST
  • Spread: TCU -1, A&M +1
  • O/U: 130
  • Money Line: TCU -115, A&M +105

My pick: Pass

Considering TCU has hit the over in three straight games, I would be inclined to take this line at a low number like 130, but I’m worried Vegas set the line this low for a reason, so I’m gonna pass up on making an official pick.

If I had to side with one or the other, I would take TCU -1 and the over of 130, though I am not 100% confident in either of those lines.

For some reason the public just can’t decide when it comes to TCU spreads as yet again the bet percentage is split down the middle. Texas A&M is currently receiving 52% of public bets while TCU has 48%. What’s interesting is that 77% of the money placed on this line sides with the Aggies, meaning bigger bettors are siding with them.

Being that we’ve finally reached the weekend, today’s board is enormous and I love it. After a heartbreaker last time out, losing the FSU -3.5 spread by just 1.5 points, my overall record on the “best bets” comes out to 11-4.

Here are what I believe to be the best bets from today’s college basketball slate:

Pick 1: Dayton -3.5 against Miss. State

  • Tip-off: 2:00 p.m. CST

Why: Despite a slow start to the season, I feel like now is time for the Flyers to finally get things going. It’s always tough adjusting to life without a first-round talent as star player Obi Toppin has moved onto the NBA, but Dayton still looks to be a tournament worthy team. Mississippi State began the year 0-2 falling to Clemson and Liberty, but since then they have gone a perfect 3-0. Their three wins have come against inferior teams such as Texas State and Jackson State, both teams Dayton could beat by 20+ with ease. This will be the Bulldogs toughest test of the season, and I think they’ll crack. Back the Flyers to cover.

Pick 2: Winthrop -9.5 against USC Upstate

  • Tip-off: 3:00 p.m. CST

Why: This is the first game of a back-to-back weekend for these two teams as they’ll play each other again tomorrow at the same time. This line is a blessing, take it before it moves to Winthrop -20 for tomorrow’s game. When these teams met in March last season, Winthrop came away with a dominant 106-70 win. Supported by this season’s results, not much has changed for USCU as they are currently 0-4 and losing by an average margin of 14.5 points.

Pick 3: Illinois -3 against Mizzou

  • Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. CST

Why: After taking their first loss of the year to Baylor, Illinois bounced back in emphatic fashion with a 15-point win at Cameron Indoor Stadium against Duke. Missouri is also playing well with a 4-0 record going 3-1 against the spread thus far, including an upset win over Oregon. The key to victory for the Illini will be to continue their red-hot shooting form as they are ranked 4th in the nation for three-point field goals made. Even if they go cold from deep, Illinois is also ranked 4th in the country in offensive rebounding, hauling in 42% of their own missed field goal attempts.

The comment section is open! What are your favorite picks today? Do you think TCU will come out on top against Texas A&M? Will the over or under hit in today’s game? Let us know!