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Bunnell’s Bounces: Life is too short to pick the under

TCU enters tonight’s matchup vs North Dakota State as 12 point favorites.

NCAA Basketball: Texas Christian at Oklahoma State Rob Ferguson-USA TODAY Sports

RJ Nembhard has ice in his veins! TCU Basketball came away with a big-time 77-76 upset over Oklahoma State on the road thanks to scoring the final 9 points of the game and a go-ahead jump shot by Nembhard with less than 10 seconds left.

Future first-round draft pick Cade Cunningham tried his best, but the Frogs defense held strong forcing the Cowboys to put up a bad shot as time expired.

After dominating Texas A&M and upsetting OK. State, TCU is a team that’s trending upwards. The Frogs are now 4-4 against the spread this season covering in their last two games. The overs just keep on hitting.

The Frogs are now 5-3 on the over/under this season, hitting four of the last five overs.

As the season progresses, the Frog’s seem to be doing better against the spread, though it’s still too early to tell if they would be a profitable team over the course of the full season.

Tonight the Frogs take on North Dakota State — a team that has done alright for themselves against the spread (4-3), but not so much overall (2-5). Before failing to cover a -5 point spread against North Dakota in their last outing, the Bison had covered in four straight games. The most notable of those include a 4-point loss to top-ranked Kansas and only an 11-point loss to Creighton; the Bison were 23+ point underdogs in each game.

It seems like no matter who they are playing, North Dakota State tends to play teams close. Considering both teams have been playing well ATS lately, this is a tough call.

Let’s see where the oddsmakers have the lines set for tonight’s non-conference matchup:

TCU vs North Dakota State

  • Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. CST
  • Spread: TCU -12, NDSU +12
  • O/U: 127
  • Money Line: TCU -910, NDSU +600

My pick: Over 127, NDSU +12

Don’t get me wrong, TCU is going to win this game, but I think the Bison might give the Frogs a run for their money. NDSU’s last five games have been decided by an average margin of 5 points, and they are possibly the best 2-5 team in the country.

At the time I am writing this, 52% of public bettors are taking the Bison to cover the spread tonight compared to the Frog’s 48%. I don’t know if it’s some sort of weird coincidence, but the public has been split down the middle on nearly every TCU spread this season.

The over/under has fluctuated around from 128.5 all the way to 126.5 in some sportsbooks, but Draftkings seems to have settled on 127.0 which is a number I really, really like. This is tied for the second lowest over/under total in a TCU game this season. Last time the number was set this low, the Frogs hit the over with ease.

I don’t think this will be an astronomically high-scoring game, but I’m confident there will be enough points to at least hit o127.

Life is too short to bet the under anyways, let’s root for some points.

Moving on to some pick’s outside of Fort Worth tonight, I have hit a bit of a cold streak losing four out of my last six to give me a 13-8 record on the year. Things are bound to turn around eventually… right?

Here are my three best bets for today’s college basketball slate:

Pick 1: Louisiana Tech -11 against Louisiana-Monroe

  • Tip-off: 6:30 p.m. CST

Why: Louisiana Tech has had some ups and downs so far this season, but they are certainly better equipped than ULM. The Bulldogs are led by senior guard Kalob Ledoux who is averaging 14.6 points per game on 45.5% field goal percentage; I expect him to have a big game tonight. Even though Ledoux will be the best player on the court, Louisiana Tech is a solid offensive team all around averaging 75.6 points per game compared to the Warhawks 64.7. The only common opponent of these teams is Lamar. LA Tech dominated Lamar 86-57 while on the other hand ULM lost 63-60 even though they were -3 point favorites. I’m not saying the Bulldogs repeat their performance against Lamar, but they certainly have enough tools to rack up their third straight double-digit win tonight.

Pick 2: Iowa (1H) -3.5 against Purdue

  • Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. CST

Why: Sure, Iowa was dealt their first loss of the year last time out against Gonzaga… but that’s Gonzaga. Iowa may as well be the 2nd best team in college basketball this year, I haven’t seen an offense this explosive since TCU’s 2014 football season… *sigh* My reasoning for taking the first half spread in this Big 10 matchup: 1. I think the Hawkeyes will come out fiery considering they haven’t beat the Boilermakers in four straight games. 2. Iowa is a legitimate national title contender if they can just improve slightly on defense, so losing two games straight shouldn’t be in their repertoire. I’m going to use all caps here because this deserves all caps: LUKE GARZA IS A BEAST, AN ANIMAL, CANNOT BE STOPPED! Despite falling to Gonzaga, the senior big man put up 30 points, 10 rebounds, and 3 blocks on the #1 team in the country. This kid is for real, and so is this team.

Pick 3: Drake -15 against North Dakota

  • Tip-off: 6:00 p.m. CST

Why: I’m not going to sugar coat this — North Dakota is awful. The Fighting Hawks (1-7) only win came from a 75-71 upset over a measly South Dakota squad. I really don’t have much to say about this line. If you want to beat Vegas this season, just take Drake every single game — it’s worked out for me so far. The Bulldogs are a perfect 6-0 against the spread this season, averaging 41% three-point shooting, 58% from two-point range, and are phenomenal at rebounding. Now that’s a bandwagon I’m jumping on without question. A mistake? Maybe. We’ll see how things play out, but for now we ride with Drake.

The comment section is open! What are your favorite picks today? Do you think TCU will cover the -12 point spread against NDSU? Will the over or under hit in today’s game? Let us know!