A brief peek back at what went right and what went wrong in Week 13:
Value QB Will Rogers did not disappoint in the Egg Bowl, throwing for 440 yards and 3 TDs, good for 32.2 fantasy points. I was accurate in projecting Texas A&M’s Isaiah Spiller to have a huge workload in a cruising win over LSU – even in a low-scoring game he got 29 touches for 158 yards and a TD.
My choices were yet again ravaged by late COVID cancellations, as my Stud QB (Virginia’s Brennan Armstrong) and WR (OSU’s Chris Olave) did not get a chance to perform. My worst call by far was Whop Philyor as a Value WR, with his QB Michael Pennix going down with an injury he could only muster 2 catches for 24 yards. I wouldn’t call Isaih Pacheco a bust as a Value RB, given he got 17 touches for 74 yards, but not reaching the endzone despite the Scarlet Knights putting up 37 points was a disappointment.
Let’s look forward to the best plays for Week 14:
TCU (+1) vs. Oklahoma State, O/U: 51.5
The Frogs are back on the Main Slate to close out the Big 12 portion of the season. It may not seem ideal to force anyone from this game into your lineup on a loaded and bloated Main Slate, but there are some options.
Spencer Sanders, QB OK State ($8,400) – Some Cowboy WR is going to have a big day –even if TCU manages to shut down Tylan Wallace, Sanders will find Stoner or Johnson or whomever. Seemingly fully healthy, he could do some damage on the ground as well. At $1,400 cheaper than Duggan, in similar situations, it’s hard to suggest Sanders isn’t the better play. Where it could fall apart is if Khari Coleman and the TCU defense create pressure – generating sacks, fumbles, and bad decisions leading to a stack of negative fantasy points for Sanders.
Dez Jackson, RB OK State ($4,900) – This price point is simply baffling. Last week news broke just before game time that OSU’s star RB Chuba Hubbard would be out, with backup LD Brown already ruled out. This was Jackson’s backfield against Texas Tech, where he was given the bell-cow treatment and took full advantage, amassing 245 yards and 3 TDs on 38 touches. After that explosion, FanDuel did not move his price at all. Certainly TCU’s defense should be able to do more to slow Jackson than the Red Raiders’ could, but if Hubbard misses again Saturday he should be able to easily pay off this price point.
There are ways to fit TCU players into your lineup too, but across the board they are priced as if they’re taking on the Kansas defense and not Oklahoma State’s. This means you are likely to find options with more advantageous opportunities in the same price range. That too may provide low ownership in tournaments, giving you a leg-up if you correctly guess which Frog will put on a show. For reference, here’s some of the players in the range of TCU’s top options – in each case there’s someone with better game total, team total, workload, etc. that probably pushes you away from the Frog. I certainly hope these guys all have massive games, just don’t think I could put money on it.
Reminder: your Main Slate roster will include 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, and a Super Flex (any offensive player, including QB). The Main Slate this week includes a robust 15 games, better protecting in case multiple games get cancelled. We get the Game of the Century of this year (BYU – Coastal Carolina) and the game once known as the Game of the Century (LSU – Alabama). Who are the best targets for a big week?
Grayson McCall ($9,600): Coastal Carolina (+10) vs. BYU, O/U 62.6 – The way prices are set this week, I think you’ll want to start two Stud QBs, and basically all of them seem to be in great spots. McCall might not have the best day of all of $9,000+ QBs, but think he has the best value. This is the game of the day and I’m standing on the position that I’d rather play McCall over BYU QB Zach Wilson ($11,000). Pass defense is the one area where BYU hasn’t been elite this season, while the Chanticleers’ passing offense has been. McCall may not have the Manziel-ian escapability that Wilson has shown, but he does have 5 rushing TDs on the season, to go with a 20-1 TD-INT ratio through the air. Traveling across the country on short notice with the season on the line, BYU may show some cracks, and McCall will take advantage.
Harrison Bailey ($6,200): Tennessee (+17.5) vs. Florida, O/U 62.5 – Ok, so this may be digging way too deep into the value jar, and I don’t think a Value QB is necessary with the pricing this week, but hear me out. Bailey is the next entrant in a long line of “Next Peyton Manning” in Knoxville. The #3 pro-style QB in the 2020 recruiting class, the expectations for Bailey are astronomical, as he’s tasked to be the savior bringing Volunteer football back to glory. That’s not going to happen this season, and almost certainly won’t happen this game, but if he is given the opportunity to start vs #6 Florida (and their sneakily bad defense) and show enough towards a bright future, it might be the thing that gives Jeremy Pruitt another season in orange. It actually may be the only thing that can save Pruitt’s job at this point, so I think he will give Bailey every opportunity to shine. If Bailey doesn’t start Saturday you could shift to teammate Jarrett Guarantano at $6,400. If you are looking for a safer value play, look to Bo Nix ($7,900) vs. Texas A&M for some Gus Malzahn Saves His Job magic.
Rhamondre Stevenson ($9,200): Oklahoma (-21.5) vs. Baylor, O/U 62.5 – Stevenson has been a revelation since his return to action following a suspension, scoring over 20 fantasy points in each game. Although the Sooner backfield is crowded, Stevenson is clearly established himself as the top option, and the usage has reflected as such, with 29 touches for 195 yards in Bedlam. He’s the lead back for a team expected to win by a huge margin in a game with a lot of points – even if OU gets all its RBs involved, Steven should still put up great numbers. As always, you’d be happy with Etienne ($10,100) and Najee ($10,600) as clear superstars in incredible spots this week, but if looking for an alternative Stevenson should give you a unique look.
Bijan Robinson ($6,900): Texas (-7) vs. Kansas State, O/U 51 – The best Value RB was already discussed as Dez Jackson’s price hasn’t changed despite his breakout last week and likely heavy workload vs. TCU. The Longhorns are in disarray right now, coming off their 3rd loss of the season, losing high profile recruits, and the Urban Meyer sharks circling Tom Herman. Being eliminated from the Big 12 Championship, the Longhorns are now in opt-out season, as star players begin fleeing the program for greener pastures of the NFL or the Transfer Portal. One such opt-out was RB Keaontay Ingram – though unclear if he is actually leaving the program, he’s done for the year. Enter super-recruit Bijan to take the reins in the backfield. He got the bulk of the work last week vs. ISU and was not especially great, as Sam Ehlinger continued to lead the ‘Horns rushing attack. However the K-State defense is demonstrably worse than that of the Cyclones and Texas should have a better time creating yards and points for Bijan to get his showcase opportunity.
Kyle Pitts ($9,400): Florida (-17.5) vs. Tennessee, O/U 62.5 – Pitts has been unstoppable when he’s been on the field, putting up 513 receiving yards and leads the country with 11 receiving TDs, in just six games. This week he gets a Tennessee defense that ranks 95th overall in EPA/pass, while his QB is making a push for the Heisman and his team makes a push for the Playoff. I wouldn’t expect the Gators to ease up any time soon, and will continue to look for their super TE often.
Cade Otton ($6,600): Washington (-11.5) vs. Stanford, O/U 50 – I know “you want me to trust a TE in a game with a total this low? No way.” I understand, however over his last two games Otton has totaled 15 catches for 208 yards and 3 TDs – averaging 23.15 fantasy points per game. It’s not quite up to Pitts’ level of insane TE stats, but still far out performing this price point. If the Huskies decide to pass the ball at all in this game against a Stanford defense that has been very bad in limited games this season, expect most of those to be towards Otton.
Note: you will need a FanDuel account, but you do not need to make a deposit to join this contest, all these games are free and just for bragging rights.
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