Turnover: Assessing the impact of TCU Basketball’s offseason transfers

TCU basketball added one and lost another on Friday afternoon. Taryn Todd is in the transfer portal, according to Drew Davison of the Fort Worth Star Telegram. The Frogs also added Shahada Wells from UT-Arlington, who announced his commitment earlier Friday afternoon.

Todd is the seventh transfer from TCU this season, and the 16th to transfer away from the program since Jamie Dixon took over the helm in 2016. On the flip side, Wells is the ninth transfer into Dixon’s program over the same time span.

Before we get too far it needs to be noted: transferring is far, far more common in this current era of basketball then it ever has been before. SMU has also seen seven players transfer out of the program this year. Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Texas have all had players leave the program, albeit those are results of coaching changes.

That being said seeing seven guys leave the program in a single season is disconcerting, especially when a good portion of them were contributors.

Kevin Easley started 13 games, and although he moved to a bench role as Big 12 play progressed he averaged close to 20 minutes per game.

Jaedon LeDee and Todd were both counted on for big minutes this past season, too, both averaging more than 15 minutes a contest. LeDee was a big who - although a bit undersized - was willing to be physical down low, while Todd led the team in 3-point shooting percentage (min. 40 attempts).

Pair their departures with RJ Nembhard leaving for the NBA, and TCU’s rotation is going to look quite different in 2021-22. If I had to make a way-too-early prediction on TCU’s starting five for 2021-22 it would be Mike Miles, Francisco Farabello, PJ Fuller, Chuck O’Bannon, and Kevin Samuel.

While Evans and Wells both look like solid additions on paper, that’s two more guys, along with TCU’s one high school commit for 2021, who will have to get to know the players, learn Dixon’s system, and adjust to life at TCU next year.

Continuity is certainly difficult to come by for Dixon and Co., as they’ve now seen their leading scorer leave for the NBA in both of the last two seasons. While spots opening up is also an opportunity to improve, continuity in college basketball is equally as important as talent.

Look, for instance, at Baylor. Baylor, this year’s national champion, started all juniors and seniors, all of whom had been in the program for at least three seasons. Gonzaga was a slightly different story, starting three upperclassmen, a sophomore, and a freshman, but only one was a transfer (Nembhard from Florida).

As much as it might suck to be a TCU fan watching your rival win a title, Baylor’s coaching staff has managed to maintain a talented core of players who chose to stick around in an era where transferring is far more popular than sticking it out.

If TCU is going to take the next step under Jamie Dixon, retention has to be a part of the plan.

But that’s where we are right now - wondering how much further Jamie Dixon can elevate the program. He’s brought it from “six feet of crap, and then there’s us” to a program that is competing on a nightly basis and producing NBA talent.

This year certainly didn’t do Dixon any favors as he finished with a losing record for the first time in his coaching career. Yes COVID was a major issue for TCU more so than a lot of other programs, and because of that I’m partially willing to brush off this season.

The reality is though, TCU hasn’t made it back to the NCAA Tournament since Dixon’s second season at the helm, and they haven’t had a winning record since the 2018-19 season. It’s reasonable to ask how much longer we have to wait until we see TCU take the next step, after the several they’ve already taken under Dixon’s leadership.