NOTE: All betting lines are pulled from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change
TCU continued its hot streak in Lawrence, winning outright and covering as 6.5-point favorites with the 38-31 win over the Kansas Jayhawks. The Frogs remain undefeated on the and against the spread. Oklahoma State emerged victorious last week despite a valiant effort from Behren Morton and the Red Raiders. Even with the win secured, the Pokes were unable to cover the 11-point spread, defeating Texas Tech 41-31.
Moneyline: TCU -175; Oklahoma State +150
Spread: TCU -4; Oklahoma State +4
Total Points: 68.5
The marketplace has faith in the Frogs. When this game opened with TCU as a 2-point home favorite against the Top-10 Cowboys it was a bit of a surprise, but that number has continued to climb despite the money bet is being reported as a near even split. The total has held firm at 68.5, not crossing the nice key number of 69 despite heavy action on the over and considering TCU’s contests have gone over this number all but once and the Cowboy offense will be the best the Frogs D has faced thus far. With an implied final score of approximately TCU 36 - OK State 32, the game is projected to be a well-played tight contest that doesn’t devolve into a shootout. However it plays out, it should be quite a show Saturday afternoon in Fort Worth.
Note: Prop lines are pulled from PrizePicks and are subject to change
Spencer Sanders (OSU): 272.5
Max Duggan (TCU): 300.5
Spencer Sanders (OSU): 20.5
Max Duggan (TCU): 23.5
Spencer Sanders has looked sharp in his 35th season for OK State, limiting turnovers and slinging TDs everywhere, with a 12-2 TD-INT rate in 2022. However his yardage hasn’t been especially impressive yet, going over this total just twice this season, each requiring over 40 attempts to get there. If you think the game is a back and forth quick score shootout, Sanders goes over, if OSU is content to attempt controlling possession and escape with a slim late win, Sanders may not get enough attempts to hit this number. In non-FCS games, Sanders is completing under 60% of his passes, so again, he may need 40+ attempts to his that completion number as well.
Max Duggan has blossomed under the new coaching staff, completing over 73% of passes, but even with his great games he’s still averaging under 300 yards per game in non-FCS games started and has not yet completed more than 24 passes in a game this season. Perhaps this is the game that even more is heaped on Max’s shoulders, requiring more completions than previous games.
Spencer Sanders (OSU): 51.5
Dominic Richardson (OSU): 84.5
Max Duggan (TCU): 37.5
Kendre Miller (TCU): 92.5
For Sanders, this rushing number just feels far too high. Although The TCU defense has been strong in containing athletic QBs so far (Mordecai: 4 yards; Daniels+Bean: 40 yards), but this is certainly a greater challenge, with more defensive resources needed on skill players, may not have the spy defender stopping the big QB runs. It’s concerning that Sanders has gone over this number in every FBS game this season, and TCU hasn’t been running up big sack numbers that could bring his rushing yardage down. Dominic Richardson has been a full time workhorse for the Cowboys, with other RBs barely getting any touches. Even with that big time workload, Richardson has only broken this number once (131 yards on 27 carries vs. Arizona State). TCU has allowed over 175 total rush yards the past two weeks, so even if Richardson and Sanders evenly split all carries, they both could go over.
On the TCU side, Duggan has gone well over this number in each of his Power 5 contests in 2022, even with single-digit carries. However the Cowboy defense may be the most apt to deliver negative yardage via sack of any of those teams, so it’s a dangerous prop to jump all-in, as the variance is so high. The OSU is surrendering just 118.8 rushing yards per game, so for Miller to go over, he’ll need to get nearly all of that himself. Only Xazavian Valladay of Arizona State has gone over this number against the Cowboys, with 118 yards on 21 carries in Week 2.
Brennan Presley (OSU): 52.0
Quentin Johnston (TCU): 61.5
Brennan Presley (OSU): 4.5
Quentin Johnston (TCU): 5.0
While I have been leaning towards the under on many of these props, here’s where I see it going way over. Even if fellow receiver Braydon Johnson and Jaden Bray potentially returning from injuries, Presley could be in store for a big day. Kansas had four pass catchers hit this number vs. TCU last week and Presley has the ability to break a single play to explode this prop. I can also see him getting peppered with targets out of the slot in a positive match up with the middle of TCU’s pass defense.
QJ is coming off a career day and is still getting the disrespect. Although propmakers bumped his yardage up 17 yards from last week, we know what Johnston is capable of and it’s far greater than these numbers. OSU has the defensive talent to better spread around to slow TCU’s skill players, but still may not send extra resources at Johnston, giving him ample opportunities to go crazy again .
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