Bet the Frogs: at Texas

Game Odds

NOTE: All lines are pulled from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.

The TCUI Horned Frogs earned a 10-point home win over Texas Tech with a 4th quarter flurry to cover the 8.5-points spread. TCU moved to to 9-0 on the season and 8-1 against the spread. The Texas Longhorns are coming off a TD win in Manhattan over Kansas State, covering the 3-point spread to improve to 6-3 straight-up and 6-3 against the spread for the season. TCU’s games have been slightly more likely to go over the point total than Texas’ with the teams going a combined 10-8 over the spread.

Moneyline: TCU +230; Texas -275
Spread: TCU +7.5; Texas -7.5
Total Points: 65

The spread opened with TCU as a touchdown underdog and has mostly held in that spot, but DraftKings has now moved it to 7.5. The line and total implies an approximate final score of TCU 29 - Texas 36. The theory here is that TCU has been “lucky” and Texas has been “unlucky” plus “homefield advantage” in Austin will flip these teams’ seasons on Saturday, which feels like people looking at their power rankings and trying to big-brain a reason why all those recruiting stars will make it happen on the field. Certainly the Bijan Robinson-Quinn Ewers-Xavier Worthy combo is the most talented offensive trifecta TCU will face on the season and the other weapons in Ja’Tavion Sanders, Jordan Whittington, and Roschon Johnson are very dangerous as well. The TCU Defense will have a lot to manage, especially in the first half while Dee Winters is sidelined due to a targeting penalty in the 3rd Quarter last week. The TCU Offense will need to keep pace and the Duggan-Miller-Johnston trio is no slouch either. Johnston missed much of the Texas Tech game with an ankle injury and the Frogs will want him at full health to take advantage of the Longhorn secondary. We can expect a lot of points Saturday night and while the marketplace believes the Longhorns win it big, the Frogs have defied oddsmakers all season.

Player Props

Note: Prop lines are pulled from PrizePicks and are subject to change

Pass Yards:
Quinn Ewers (TEX): 260.5
Max Duggan (TCU): 260.5

Pass Completions:
Quinn Ewers (TEX): 18.5
Max Duggan (TCU): 19.5

Pass TDs:
Quinn Ewers (TEX): 2.0
Max Duggan (TCU): 2.0

The marketplace sees Ewers and Duggan having basically the exact same game Saturday night. Ewers has on thrown over each of those categories twice all season, he’d need to have one of his best games of the year to go over those numbers, but that isn’t out of the realm of possibility. For Duggan, he’s gone over that completion total 5 times, over that yardage total 7 times, and over that TD total 6 times this season. For Duggan to go under on all three it would need to be one of his worse games of the season, which the Longhorn Defense could certainly force.

Rush Yards:
Bijan Robinson (TEX): 125.5
Kendre Miller (TCU): 100.5
Max Duggan (TCU): 30.5

The Texas defense was able to hold the dynamic QB-RB rushing duo of Deuce Vaughn and Adrian Martinez to a combined 125 yards, partially thanks to a game script that had the Wildcats down early and needing Martinez to throw 36 passes. Having passed that test, the Longhorns will now need to handle the Miller-Duggan combo. Duggan hasn’t done much in the run game the last three weeks, being held under 15 yards each week, thanks to taking some sacks for big lost yardage and not having any runs break free for big gains. Kendre Miller has gone over 100 yards 6 times this season, including the last four games; however the Longhorns have not allowed a 100-yard rusher all season.

Receiving Yards:
Bijan Robinson (TEX): 30.5
Xavier Worthy (TEX): 70.5
Ja’Tavion Sanders (TEX): 50.5

Receptions:
Xavier Worthy (TEX): 4.5
Ja’Tavion Sanders (TEX): 4.0

With Quentin Johnston’s status unknown, there are no receiving props available at this time for the Horned Frogs. All of receiving yardage numbers seem way too low for the ‘Horns, Sanders in particular. The TCU defense has been especially vulnerable to intermediate targets over the middle, as offenses attack the Frog linebacker and safety groups; now put 6’4” 242 lbs and 5-star talent in that role and it’s frightening. Robinson and Worthy each may cross over that yardage total on single plays; for Robinson, with no Winters defensively for half the game he should be able to find space on anything Coach Sarkisian draws up. While TCU CBs Newton & Tomlinson have been strong, Worthy will be peppered with targets and would expect to hit at least one big play.