Projecting the College Football Playoff Ranking

The College Football Playoff Committee will release its weekly rankings for the third time this season on Tuesday night. The TCU Horned Frogs climbed from #7 in the initial release to #4 in the second edition. The Committee had expressed concern over the Frogs not showing balance with a strong defense to pair with its explosive offense. The TCU Defense arrived with a vengeance on Saturday in Austin, by not surrendering an offensive TD and holding the Texas Longhorns under 200 yards.

There was a fair amount of upheaval in the rankings, if perhaps not at the very top. Will the Horned Frogs jump any of the three teams previously ahead, as each earned easy wins over lowly opponents? Which teams will linger in position outside the Top 4, waiting for some chaos to occur up top?

Projected Top 10

1. Georgia (10-0) - The Bulldogs of Athens handled Mike Leach’s Bulldogs of Starkville 45-19 after playing with its food for a bit before blowing up in the 2nd Half as Stetson Bennett pushes his Heisman hopes forward with 4 total TDs , but did toss 2 interceptions.
2. Ohio State (10-0) - The Buckeyes scored 3 TDs in the first quarter and cruised to a with over Indiana as CJ Stroud threw for 5 TDs to likely extend his lead on the Heisman race. The showdown with Michigan looms two weeks away, with a trip to College Park, Maryland next.
3. Michigan (10-0) - Another B1G contender gets a win over a pathetic 7-loss opponent, as Big Blue knocked off Big Red 34-3 with Blake Corum running for 162 yards and a TD. Michigan will get an Illinois squad without the nation’s top RB Chase Brown before The Game
4. TCU (10-0) - If the Committee wants to make a statement regarding schedule strength vs. “eye-test” it will put TCU ahead of Michigan and perhaps even OSu. The Wolverines rank 5th in Strength of Record and 82nd in Strength of Schedule; the Frogs 1st overall in SOR and 38th in SOS. I doubt the Committee has the cajones for such a move and will keep the Frogs firmly at 4.
5. Tennessee (9-1) - Another case of a team playing with its overmatched food before devouring the Tigers in the 2nd Half. The Vols were one of the big winners of the weekend as it is now basically impossible for Tennessee to fall below 5 without a loss now that Oregon lost, plus wins by LSU and Alabama further boost the strength of those wins.
6. USC (9-1) - The Trojans are the last realistic hope for a Pac 12 team to climb into the Playoff after cruising past Colorado on Friday night. USC will be in the Rose Bowl next week to take on UCLA in a game that lost some of its luster with the Bruins’ loss to Arizona, but will have major implications for the Pac 12 title race and the Trojans’ chances to stay alive in the Playoff chase.
7. LSU (8-2) - The Tigers will have to stay above Alabama thanks to the win in Baton Rouge two games back, but LSU performed poor against an Arkansas squad missing starting QB KJ Jefferson. Freshman Edge Harold Perkins was there to save the day with incredible speed and skill to get sacks and force fumbles to almost single-handedly win the game. With a spot in Atlanta locked up vs. Georgia in the SEC Championship, the Tigers could still win out and get into the Top 4.
8. Alabama (8-2) - The Tide benefitted from a Zach Evans fumble late in the 1st Half and were able to storm back to take down Ole Miss in Oxford. However Bama is likely eliminated from the Playoff discussion as it’s unable to make the SEC Championship and get a chance at that signature win over UGA.
9. Clemson (9-1) - The Tigers took down Louisville as Malik Cunningham went down with injury, but with a spot in the ACC Championship now solidified against North Carolina, Clemson still has a theoretical path to the Playoff if the dominoes fall its way. With games against Miami and South Carolina remaining, the Tigers should be able to get there unscathed, but have looked vulnerable.
10. Penn State (8-2) - This 10th spot may be the toughest to call, I could see arguments for Oregon, Utah, or North Carolina here. I think the Committee gives the nod to the Nittany Lions whose only losses are to Top-3 teams and just shut out a perceived-to-be prolific Maryland offense. The wins over Auburn and (potential B1G West Champion) Purdue continue to look better in recent weeks . The Committee will have to keep PSU propped up to justify OSU & Michigan ahead of TCU anyway (just kidding, kinda).

TCU took a big step forward in the marketplace with its win over Texas, currently listed on DraftKings Sportsbook as the 5th best odds to win the National Championship at +2500 (25-to-1), behind UGA, OSU, Michigan, and Tennessee. Meanwhile, Max Duggan has moved up to the 7th best odds to win the Heisman Trophy at +6000.

The next release of the College Football Playoff rankings will be broadcast on ESPN and streamed on WatchESPN and the ESPN App on Tuesday November 15. It will be a late show, approximately 8PM Central, prior to the Champions Classic basketball game between Duke & Kansas.

Where do you think the Committee will rank the Frogs on Tuesday?

The Longhorns entered the game vs. TCU as the #18 team in the Playoff ranking, as the top 3-loss team. After taking the loss to the Horned Frogs, will the Committee keep the 4-loss Longhorns in the Top 25? There was quite a bit of carnage at the bottom of the rankings this week that perhaps other teams will fall out while Texas got to pick up another quality loss.