Bet the Frogs: at Baylor

Game Odds

NOTE: All lines are pulled from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.

The TCU Horned Frogs went into Darrell K. Royal Stadium as 7.5-point underdogs and walked away with a 17-10 victory. The win moved TCU to 10-0 on the season and 9-1 against the spread. The Baylor Bears are coming off a home contest with Kansas State in which it entered as 2.5-point favorites and departed with an embarrassing 31-3 loss to fall down a peg in the Big 12 race and drop to 6-4 overall and against the spread. The Frogs and Bears have both trended over more often this season, even as both had games under this point total last week, with a combined 13-7 Over on the season.

Moneyline: TCU -135; Baylor +115
Spread: TCU -2.5; Baylor +2.5
Total Points: 57

A year after Chandler Morris and Jerry Kill ended Baylor’s push for the Playoff in Fort Worth in the Horned Frogs’ first game in two decades without Gary Patterson on the sideline, the Bears will get a chance at revenge with an undefeated TCU headed to McLane Stadium on Saturday. The oddsmakers are clearly still not fully sold on the Horned Frogs, after making it more than a TD underdogs in Week 11, now TCU is a short favorite in Waco. It’s a respect to the rivalry, a respect to Dave Aranda, and a nod to the pressure that will continue to weigh on the shoulders of an undefeated squad knowing one slip up could bring the dream crashing down. It’s the trope of throw out the records in that rivalry match, but it’s a trope for a reason: these games have gotten weird in the past and we could see another wild one in Waco. Although Aranda is known for defensive prowess and TCU just kept Texas’ offense out of the endzone, this total feels too low for a Baylor explosive running game and TCU explosiveness all over the field.

Player Props

Note: Prop lines are pulled from PrizePicks and are subject to change

Baylor props are not available at time of writing. Perhaps it’s uncertainty behind which RB will carry the work load for the week or maybe there’s something weird going on with Blake Shapen, but in any case, we’ll focus on the Frogs this week

Max Duggan:
Pass Completions: 19.5
Pass Yards: 255.5
Rush Yards: 15.5

Duggan’s statistics have slipped a bit over the last two weeks, going Under each of these numbers against Texas & Texas Tech. However, those are the only starts he’s gone under even 278 passing yards, Duggan had a hilarious rushing line of -41 yards against Texas and hasn’t rushed for 16+ since October 15 vs Oklahoma State. If TCU is able to limit the sacks, it might give Duggan a chance to accumulate positive rushing yards.

Kendre Miller
Rush Yards: 109.5

The Bears have allowed a 100+ yard rusher in its last two games, but is only allowing 132.8 total rush yards per game on the season. Miller has gone over the century mark seven times in the last eight games and is averaging 6.6 yards per carry on the season. He has been a dominant force for the Frogs and will look to continue his stellar season; even though reaching 110 yards seems a difficult feat, there’s no reason to doubt Miller if he’s given enough carries to get there.

Receiving Yards:
Quentin Johnston: 71.5
Derius Davis: 39.5
Taye Barber: 39.5

Quentin Johnston devoured the Bears in 2021 with 5 receptions for 142 yards and a TD. He was held to 66 yards by the Longhorns last week, but his previous four games went 72+ yards, averaging 134 per game.

Taye Barber has gone 40+ yards in his last two games against Baylor; in his 4 previous matchups with the Bears he’s averaging 4 receptions for 41.75 yards. Derius Davis has gone 40+ yards just four times this season and is coming off negative 6 yards on four receptions vs. Texas. Both players have the ability to take a single pass and go over this yardage total, but would likely need the offense to target them beyond the line of scrimmage rather than the horizontal pass game that was not working for them in Austin.

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