Bet the Frogs: vs. Iowa State

Game Odds

NOTE: All lines are pulled from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.

The TCU Horned Frogs escaped McLane stadium with a win, but failed to cover as 2.5-point favorites. It was only the 2nd time all season the Frogs didn’t cover the spread, while improving to an 11-0 straight up record. The Iowa State Cyclones will not be bowling this season, entering the final week with a 4-7 overall record, with all but one of those losses being by one possession. ISU lost as a 3.5-point favorite last week at home against Texas Tech to move to 5-6 vs. the spread on the season. The Cyclones have boasted one of the stingiest defenses in the country, contributing to 9 Unders on point totals in ISU games this season.

Moneyline: TCU -365; Iowa State +300
Spread: TCU -10; Iowa State +10
Total Points: 47.5

The Frogs have only been double-digit favorites on a closing line twice all season, at Colorado (-13.5) and vs. Tarleton State (-40); despite the undefeated record TCU has been evenly matched with its opponents all year, and this one is trending to falling into single-digits by game time. While these are on opposite sides of the Big 12 standings, Iowa State has played close games all year and even has a road win over likely Big Ten West champion Iowa. As TCU’s offense has not been as prolific in recent weeks, and some injuries piling up to key Horned Frog skill players, one could see the path to another low scoring rock fight with a final margin held to a single score. That said, this is by far the lowest point total for a TCU game all season, with the next lowest being the Kansas State game at 54.5. While we may not see a 55-3 outburst like the TCU-ISU game to close the 2014 season, there is a possibility that TCU will look to put up a big number if given the opportunity. Ultimately TCU may not be interested in “style points” as simply emerging with wins would be enough to maintain a lofty spot in the rankings.

Player Props

Note: Prop lines are pulled from PrizePicks and are subject to change

Pass Yards:
Hunter Dekkers (ISU): 250.5
Max Duggan (TCU): 235.5

Dekkers has gone over 250 yards in all but 3 games this season (at Iowa, at KSU, vs. WVU) and has been an extremely high volume passer, averaging over 39 attempts per game, completing 67%. While the Cyclone offense has fallen back in the absence of Breece Hall and Charlie Kolar, Dekkers has been chucking it all over the field and it’d take a top level performance from the TCU Defense to hold Dekkers to 250 or fewer yards.

Max Duggan does not have nearly the number of attempts compared to Dekkers, but has easily gone over 235 yards in all but two starts this season. This may be a number artificially lowered due to the potential high profile absences of Quentin Johnston and Derius Davis, but Duggan showed against Baylor that he can get it done with the other weapons at his disposal, throwing for 327 yards on the Bears. However, the Cyclone Defense is allowing just 172 yards per game on the season, so it may be a challenge to hit the over.

Receiving Yards:
Xavier Hutchinson (ISU): 99.5
Jaylin Noel (ISU): 53.5

Hutchinson is the Big 12’s leading receiver by a massive margin, as his 105.5 yards per game being nearly 30 yards more than Oklahoma’s Marvin Mims in 2nd place. He has secured at least 8 receptions in each game, while producing seven triple-digit games, including three straight. Hutchinson isn’t the only receiving threat for the Cyclones, as Jaylin Noel is 14th in the conference, with 532 yards. He’s had huge games in big spots against Baylor, Texas, and Oklahoma State, but has only gone for 54+ yards 5 times...and one of those was exactly 54 yards. The thought is that if TCU sends support to attempt to slow Hutchinson, Noel could get loose, but the Frogs will look to Josh Newton to keep Noel contained.

There are no TCU skill players with active props as of publishing, likely due to the uncertain injury status of Quentin Johnston, Derius Davis, and Kendre Miller.

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