NOTE: All lines are pulled from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.
The TCU Horned Frogs got a win in Morgantown for the first time since 2014 and tossed a TD pass in the final minute on 4th and 1 to get a 10-point victory and cover as 7.5-point favorites. TCU moved to 8-0 on the season and 7-1 against the spread this season. Texas Tech is coming off a bad home loss, dropping a 45-17 result as 1.5-point favorites vs. Baylor in Lubbock. The Red Raiders 4-4 straight up and against the spread for the season. Both teams have consistently hit the over on the point total, going 12-4 above the total.
Moneyline: TCU -315; Texas Tech +260
Spread: TCU -8.5; Texas Tech +8.5
Total Points: 69
The spread opened with the Frogs as a consensus 7.5-point favorite and moved as high as 10.5-points before settling in at 8.5. The line and total implies an approximate final score of TCU 39 - TTU 30. With two sub-50 SP+ defenses and TCU as a top 5 offense and TTU a top-40 offense, the expectation is for quick, frequent scores - perhaps not 82 points and running out of fireworks, but could be a track meet between two prolific offenses. The potential for rain and dropping temps could bring a more run-focus gameplan that slows things down, but both squads have also shown ability for explosive scores on the ground. Given the focus Texas Tech and its fanbase has placed on this game since the offseason - with official accounts tweeting about playing TCU while the Red Raiders were getting smashed on its home field - it’s clear TTU will throw the kitchen sink this game in Fort Worth to end the Frogs’ unbeaten streak. On the other side, the Playoff Committee made it clear that the Frogs need to put in dominant performances to earn some respect, so perhaps TCU will also be motivated to lay on the accelerator and never stop, as allowing the Red Raiders to hang around can turn ugly, as it did for the Texas Longhorns earlier this season.
Note: Prop lines are pulled from PrizePicks and are subject to change
The marketplace has no idea what Texas Tech will do on Saturday, perhaps due to the possibility of all three QBs playing, and has still not posted offensive player props for the Red Raiders as of publishing.
Max Duggan (TCU):
Pass Yards: 285.5
Pass Completions: 20.5
Rush Yards: 30.5
Pass TDs: 2.5
Duggan went over this pass yardage and TD total last week despite just 16 completions, and has gone over these numbers in all but two starts this season. Texas Tech has strong raw statistics against the pass, only allowing an opposing team to throw for over 280 yards once, with Spencer Sanders’ 297 and only Quinn Ewers has thrown for multiple TDs on the Red Raiders, with just two in the ‘Horns OT loss. It can be debated whether that’s a function of a strong Secondary or if there are other easier ways to pick up yards and points on this TTU Defense. On the rushing total, I’d be concerned with Duggan taking some sacks, as Tech Edge Tyree Wilson already has 6.5 sacks, and Duggan has been subject to big losses the last two games and has finished with rush totals below 15 yards in each.
Kendre Miller (TCU):
Rush Yards: 107.5
Receiving Yards: 8.5
While there has been discussion of Kendre Miller perhaps nursing a hand injury, he still reeled off 10 yards a carry against West Virginia. Miller has surpassed the century mark in the previous 3 games and 5 times this season, but this number still feels large if the Frogs look to spread the carries across the RB committee, with Demercado & Bailey certainly capable of chewing up yards as well.
Quentin Johnston (TCU):
Receiving Yards: 85.5
Receiving TDs: 0.5
QJ has had a very strong season, with a TD now in four consecutive games, but has only gone even 77 yards or more twice on the season, with 206 vs. Kansas and 180 vs. OK State; those are also the only games he’s had more than 4 receptions. So, if you think this is another QJ blow up game, which is very much is the realm of possibility, these totals are very low. But if you are concerned with him being potentially limited with an injury that had him out for some plays last week or that it’ll be a game where Duggan spreads the wealth to the other weapons at his disposal.
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