NOTE: All lines are pulled from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.
The TCU Horned Frogs put together its most thoroughly dominant performance of the season, defeating Iowa State 62-14 as 9.5-point favorites, easily covering the spread and sailing far over the 45.5 point total by itself. TCU improved to 12-0 straight up on the field and 10-2 against the spread. Kansas State has also performed excellently against the spread this season, moving to 9-3 ATS after covering as 12-point favorites over the Kansas Jayhawks. Oddsmakers have had the Totals properly set for these teams on the season, as KSU & TCU have combined for 13 Overs to 12 Unders. So what do oddsmakers see for the Big 12 Championship?
Moneyline: TCU -135; Kansas State +115
Spread: TCU -2.5; Kansas State +2.5
Total Points: 61.5
When these teams faced off back in October, TCU was a 3.5-point favorite and covered the spread with a 10-point victory, despite an 18-point first half deficit; the Total for that game was set at 54.5 and went well over with 66 total points scored. With Will Howard at the helm, the KSU Offense has taken a big step forward especially through the air. He entered that game in Fort Worth after an opening series 3-and-out by a hobbled Adrian Martinez and Howard promptly began shredding the TCU Defense. The national narrative on that contest was that TCU only came back to win because Martinez and Howard suffered injuries during the game. However, TCU had already taken the lead 31-28 when 3rd-stringer Jake Rubley took his first snap; Rubley only participated in 6 plays in the game (one was an abysmal interception though). In that first match up, the Kansas State defense was able to sack Max Duggan 4 times, but none of those came from Big 12 Defensive Player of the year Felix Anudike-Uzomah, who demolished the Frogs in 2021.
Will Howard, Deuce Vaughn, and King Felix have a history of performing at an elite level versus the Horned Frogs and will be looking to play spoiler and redeem themselves after the collapse in Fort Worth. But TCU has been able to get it done all year, staring down the challenges and overcoming them. Can Max Duggan have a Heisman moment and lead TCU to the 13-0 record and lock in a Playoff bid, or will it be the Wildcats jumping into the Sugar Bowl, leaving TCU to nervously await its fate on Selection Sunday? With the shortest spread of Championship Week, we could be in for a thriller in Arlington on Saturday.
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