College football fans and writers are rarely in full agreement about any subject, however when it comes to projecting the result of the Fiesta Bowl College Football Playoff Semifinal between #2 Michigan Wolverines and #3 TCU Horned Frogs, there is near unanimous consensus: Big Blue is expected to wipe the State Farm Stadium field with the Frogs. DraftKings Sportsbook has TCU as a 7.5 point underdog, with Michigan as a 3-to-1 favorite (-305) to win the game outright. The “Nobody Believes In Us” motivational theory can often be used put the chip on a team’s shoulder to go out and prove the doubters wrong - even when those doubters may be non-existent. In TCU’s case for Saturday’s Fiesta Bowl, this mantra rings true, as nobody believes the Frogs will defeat the Wolverines and advance to the National Championship.
- Adam Rittenberg, ESPN: Michigan 38, TCU 31
- USA Today, unanimous: Michigan Wins
- Chip Patterson, CBS Sport: Michigan wins and covers the 7.5-point spread
- Bill Bender, Sporting News: Michigan 34, TCU 23
- Pete Fiutak, College Football News: Michigan 34, TCU 17
- Jake Rill, Bleacher Report: Michigan 34, TCU 17
- RJ Young, Fox Sports: Michigan by double digits
- Sam Cooper, Yahoo Sports: Michigan to win and cover
Very few even give TCU a chance at covering the 7.5-point spread against Michigan, so shout out to the crew at CBS Sports, with a few projecting a TCU cover against-the-spread, while Shehan Jeyarajah is the only person I’ve seen put his name behind a TCU victory. Although this may simply be to avoid the dreaded unanimous-pick graphic that so often ends up on Freezing Cold Takes when everyone gets it wrong.
Advanced Statistical Models:
Unsurprisingly, the numbers are also not a fan of the Horned Frogs - the same numbers that had TCU as big underdogs vs. Oklahoma and at Texas. It makes logical sense, as Michigan dominated much of its schedule and earned a huge win over Ohio State. Will TCU be able to overcome the advantages that the numbers give the Wolverines?
FIESTA BOWL: TCU v MICHIGAN pic.twitter.com/8W9pDcuVoX— parker, u n v e r i f i e d (@statsowar) December 7, 2022
SP+ BOWL PICKS— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) December 6, 2022
UGA 29, Ohio St 24
Michigan 32, TCU 23
Wake 30.63, Mizzou 30.62
UK 13.2, Iowa 12.8#ILL 20, Miss St 19
PSU 27, Utah 26
SOME CLOSE ONES MAYBE.
NOTE: These picks do not take injuries and opt-outs into account. You've gotta do that part.https://t.co/tq1WxWk0kz pic.twitter.com/5oZ0teyK2X
My points based numbers like Michigan by 7.5 points over TCU. A bit lower than my member numbers but right on top of the market. For all bowl predictions: https://t.co/MHwloar10a— Ed Feng (@thepowerrank) December 14, 2022
Our college football predictions: https://t.co/brCeSWNh9B— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) December 22, 2022