Bet the Frogs: vs. Oklahoma

Game Odds

NOTE: All betting lines are pulled from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change

The Frogs covered as a 1.5 point favorite against SMU, moving to 3-0 against the spread for the season, while Oklahoma is 2-2 ATS this season and very much did not cover as 13.5-point favorite last week, losing outright to Kansas State. Oddsmakers have had trouble with both of these squads, as complete regime changes have thrown out much of the historical numbers that bettors may reference. So with the small sample size under Venables and Dykes, how does the marketplace seeing Saturday’s game playing out?

Moneyline: TCU +200; Oklahoma -240
Spread: TCU +6.5; Oklahoma-6.5
Total Points: 68.5

The market projects another high-scoring one-score contest with an approximate implied final score of Oklahoma 37 - TCU 31. Draftkings opened the line with OU as only a 4-point favorite on Sunday, but with money pouring in on the Sooners the number reached as high as 7.5 before stabilizing under a TD. This is likely a case of the computer number seeing this game as a closer match, but bettors anticipating a motivated Sooner team to bounce back from an ugly loss, while also putting little stock in a TCU home-field advantage. On the total, this number has barely moved, climbing from 67.5 to 68.5, but with bookmakers unwilling to climb over the nice key number of 69, the 12th most frequent CFB game total over the last five years, at 2.23%, per Boyd’s Bets. We could be in for another TCU-OU thriller, down to the final possession.

Player Props

Note: Prop lines are pulled from PrizePicks and are subject to change

Pass Yards:
Max Duggan (TCU): ???
Dillon Gabriel (OU): 282.5

As of Wednesday afternoon, Duggan is still not listed with player props on PrizePicks or any major book - perhaps with the news that Chandler Morris looks to be cleared to return this week or simply because Duggan is such a mystery that oddsmakers cannot decide if the number should be 299.5 or 399.5. We’ll just have to wait until closer to game time for his props to be released.

On first instinct, this number feels laughably low for Dillon Gabriel. Unless your game projection assumes either that the Sooners just run out the clock for most of the game or that Gabriel is unable to get anything going against the TCU secondary, one would think he clears this passing total. While going under this number twice this season, those were in runaway easy victories over UTEP & Nebraska. I’d like to think the Horned Frogs won’t roll over so easy, forcing the Sooners to continue to attack through the air.

Rush Yards:
Kendre Miler (TCU): 94.5
Dillon Gabriel (OU): 34.5
Eric Gray (OU): 92.5

For Gabriel: QB rushing props in college can be dangerous, as sacks count as negative yardage against the rushing total. Gabriel already has two of his career best rushing totals of this season, with 61 vs. KSU and 55 at Nebraska, but has only surpassed 34.5 yards 6 times in 30 career games. Gray has become the full bellcow back for the Sooners in 2022, already crossing the century mark 3 times this season after only doing so five times in his previous 35 games. Even as the TCU rush defense appears improved from a dismal 2021, if Gray gets that workload on Saturday, expect an Over.

On the TCU side, Kendre Miller was a certified stud vs. SMU, getting the majority of the carries and taking them for 142 yards, the 2nd highest total of his career. Even with the breakout game, Miller is averaging just 83 yards per game on the season, well under his projected number here. If he continues to dominate the workload, with a small share going to Demercado, Miller will go over; but if Bailey. Battle, Wren, and Duggan are involved this week the number may be a bit high.

Receiving Yards
Derius Davis (TCU): 41.5
Marvin Mims (OU): 95.5

Receptions
Derius Davis (TCU): 3
Marvin Mims (OU): 4.5

After a breakout true freshman season in 2020, Marvin Mims disappointed a bit during the Sooners’ up-and-down 2021, but appears to be fully in sync with new QB Dillon Gabriel. Mims has 18 catches for 397 yards on the season, but one of those games was an explosion of 7 for 163 against Kent State. Removing that outlier game, Mims averages 3.67 receptions for 78 yards. Taking the over on his props against TCU assumes he will have a better performance against the Horned Frog secondary than he did against KSU, Nebraska, or UTEP - a TCU unit that held the nation’s leading receiver Rashee Rice to just 74 yards.

Derius Davis has been arguably the MVP for the Frogs through 3 games as a dynamic weapon in the receiving, rushing, and return game. However in 41 career games, Davis has only had four or more receptions seven times and 42+ yards eleven times. Certainly the majority of those previous games were in a different offense, and Davis can surpass the yardage total on a single play, as he did going 80 yards for a score against SMU, but I’d proceed with caution.