NOTE: All lines are pulled from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.
The BYU Cougars have over performed expectations to date, entering the game with a 4-1 record, 1-1 in the Big 12. but is just 2-3 against the spread and coming off a bye week. TCU is coming off another outright loss as a favorite, falling to 3-3 on the season and just 2-4 against the spread. These two have be on opposite end of the spectrum on the over/under points total this season, with BYU playing in surprisingly high-scoring games, going over the projected total in four of five games, while the Frogs have had a tough time scoring, falling under the points projection for the fifth time this season.
Moneyline: TCU -218; BYU +180
Spread: TCU -5.5; BYU +5.5
Total Points: 52.5
These lines have seen very little movement throughout the week, briefly dropping down to TCU -4.5 before bouncing back to settle here with the Frogs as 5.5-point favorites, while the points total has remained firm all week. The points total feels far too high, given TCU will be rolling out a first-time starting QB and has been unable to score at a high rate even with its QB1. While Frogs fans may be shocked that TCU would ever be favored again, especially with the Chandler Morris injury, but TCU would’ve likely been around 10-14 point favorites with Chandler Morris active, similar to the outlook for the West Virginia. TCU will be back to hoping to just win by a single point and may be content to escape with any victory on Saturday.
Emani Bailey: 107.5 Rush Yards
Josh Hoover: 197.5 Pass Yards
JP Richardson: 28.5 Receiving Yards
These projections quite fairly assume that TCU will need to rely heavily on Emani Bailey and the ground game to attack on offense, with Josh Hoover set to make his first career start at QB, filling in for the injured Chandler Morris. Bailey has been on a tear this season, averaging 115 yards per game, with four games going well over this yardage projection. That said, BYU is certain to focus its defensive resources on stopping Bailey and forcing Hoover to do it through the air. And Hoover may just be able to get that job done enough to cross the 200 yard mark as TCU has been able to do in every game this season. BYU will likely look to slow the game and TCU’s tempo may also not be as fast with Hoover leading the charge, but expect TCU to still trust Hoover to sling the ball and have a chance at exceeding his total and the receiving number for Richardson as well.
Kedon Slovis: 217.5 Pass Yards
Chase Roberts: 42.5 Receiving Yards
Darius Lassiter: 33.5 Receiving Yards
Keanu Hill: 28.5 Receiving Yards
Isaac Rex: 40.5 Receiving Yards
Slovis has gone way over this number three times this season, but also well under twice; with the Cougars run game not yet gaining any traction this season, expect Slovis to have the green light to distribute the ball all over the field. Each of these receivers is far exceeding these numbers on average this season, except for Hill who is just below. This seems to be indicating a respect for the TCU secondary that has been pretty stout since getting demolished in Week 1. Slovis and this group of pass catchers can carry the offense, but as the unit with the fewest yards per game in the Big 12, it may be best to leave these alone.