NOTE: All lines are pulled from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.
Kansas State and TCU played in a pair of epic battles in 2022, with the Horned Frogs winning in the regular season and the Wildcats lifting the Big 12 Championship trophy. Both teams lost big time talent to the NFL and have not been able to live up to the lofty standards set a season ago. These teams have been tough to project this season as they have combined to go 7-6 against the spread and 6-7 over the points total. Although these programs had major battles last season, oddsmakers have given the Wildcats a near-touchdown advantage playing at home in Manhattan.
Moneyline: TCU +215; KSU -265
Spread: TCU +6.5; KSU -6.5
Total Points: 59.5
The spread opened with K-State favored by over a TD at -7.5, but throughout the week the line moved towards TCU, crossing over the key number of 7 and settling at 6.5 with potential to move to -6 by game time despite over 75% of reported bets placed supporting KSU to cover. The public sentiment is even more lopsided on moneyline wagers, with over 85% expecting the Wildcats to win outright and yet the line keeps shrinking. With the point total, it’s clear that Josh Hoover & Avery Johnson have done enough with incredible outputs last week to give the marketplace confidence in their ability to generate points, as the points total has climbed significantly since opening at 55.5, now up to 59.5 and likely to only go up as over 75% of public wagers have been on the over.
Josh Hoover, Pass Yards: 266.5
Emani Bailey, Rush Yards: 83.5
Jaylon Robinson, Receiving Yards: 41.5
JP Richardson, Receiving Yards: 40.5
Savion Williams, Receiving Yards: 33.5
PrizePicks hung Hoover’s pass yards projection way way too low last week and some wise folks out there may have been able to pair him up with JP Richardson and hit both on a single TD play. This number for Hoover is a much more appropriate this week, though may still be too low considering KSU has been terrible statistically at stopping pass attacks, but is incredibly strong in rushing defense. Knowing that, this may be another game where Emani Bailey serves as a secondary support role rather than the go-to bellcow; he still may get to this number with a big game, but I’d advise caution. On the receivers, I’m not sure I understand how Jaylon Robinson has the highest yardage projection of the bunch, perhaps there’s a belief that Kobe Savage shuts down half the field and Robinson becomes the primary target; he did lead the Frogs in receptions vs. BYU and has a clear connection with Hoover. Richardson & Williams each had big games vs. BYU and if TCU is going to have any offensive success, it’s likely that both of them will need to at least cross well beyond this projection.
DJ Giddens, Rush Yards: 61.5
Treshaun Ward, Rush Yards: 66.5
The Wildcats are a very good running offense, and it’s possible these two along with the QB run all over the Horned Frogs on Saturday, but it may just be one of those and it’ll be tough to pick which one. Giddens has only surpassed this projection 3 times this season, one of which vs. FCS SEMO and another was his blow-up game vs. UCF when Ward didn’t play; Ward’s coming off a 118 yard output vs. Texas Tech, but that marks his only game even reaching 60 yards on the season. The TCU defense has only allowed two running backs to reach 62 or more rush yards, SMU’s Camar Wheaton (73 yards) and Iowa State’s Eli Sanders (99 yards), much less multiple RBs in the same game. It’s probably best as a stay-away, because it’s quite likely one of these backs has more yards than projected, but the chances are slimmer that it’s both or that you’ll pick the correct one.