NOTE: All lines are pulled from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.
TCU has only failed to cover the spread twice against the Longhorns while the pair were conference opponents, losing by 5 as 4-point underdog in 2021 and the bad loss in Austin in 2018. With TCU has had trouble performing up to its standards this season, the Horned Frogs have consistently been able to get up to bring down the Longhorns. TCU is a very bad 3-6 against the spread on the season, coming off a TD loss in Lubbock as 2.5-point underdogs. Texas enters the game following a thrilling home win over Kansas State, however failed to cover as 3.5-point favorites, moving to 4-5 against the spread on the season.
As two of the worst offenses nationally at converting scoring opportunities into points, TCU & Texas have combined to go just 6-12 over the point total. While both offenses sport some high powered talent and fast-tempo schemes, the offenses have not been able to live up to oddsmaker expectations.
Moneyline: TCU +380; Texas -500
Spread: TCU +12.5; Texas -12.5
Total Points: 56
The marketplace sure loves Quinn Ewers. This game opened with the Longhorns favored by eight points, with a game total at 54.5. As soon as it was announced by Texas Head Coach Steve Sarkisian that Ewers would return from injury and start this game on Saturday ahead of Maalik Murphy, the line and total took a leap upward. There aren’t many players in college football that drive a 4.5-point value, and I’m not sold that Ewers is one of them, but he is famous and holds that sway with the public. If you like the over, you better jump in now because with over 70% of wagers on the game showing a high score, this total is likely to continue to increase. The smart play may be to await that total to keep climbing and then buy back the under, as Ewers may not be 100% in his return and the TCU offense can not be called upon to put up enough points to push this well over. It’s certainly possible that Texas gets the blowout in Fort Worth in a game the Longhorns often lose and often are on the other end of the lopsided score, perhaps tread lightly.
Josh Hoover, Pass Yards: 242.5
Emani Bailey, Rush Yards: 64.5
Jaylon Robinson, Receiving Yards: 38.5
JP Richardson, Receiving Yards: 44.5
Savion Williams, Receiving Yards: 45.5
In Hoover’s three starts, he’s averaging over 326 yards per game while his receivers Savion Williams averaged 58 yards, Jaylon Robinson averaged 47.7 yards, and JP Richardson averaged 47.3 yards. While it’s likely true that the Longhorns will pose the greatest test to the TCU offense this season, the Frogs may be sold a bit short in these props. The same can be said for Emani Bailey, who is averaging over 100 yards per game, with six games rushing for 65+ yards. The Longhorns very well may fully shut down TCU, but it seems likely the Frogs will have more yards than projected here.
Quinn Ewers, Pass Yards: 277.5
Jonathon Brooks, Rush Yards: 104.5
CJ Baxter, Rush Yards: 42.5
Jordan Whittington, Receiving Yards: 26.5
Adonai Mitchell, Receiving Yards: 57.5
Ja’Tavion Sanders, Receiving Yards: 37.5
Xavier Worthy, Receiving Yards: 70.4
How will the Texas offense operate with Ewers back behind center? He’s put up his best statistical games in his toughest game, throwing for 340+ yards vs. Alabama & Oklahoma. It may be the case that Ewers and the pass game will not be called upon to do much damage in Fort Worth, if indeed the Longhorns are able to easily walk through this game. Sanders has only had 38+ yards three times this season, but he may have the best matchup in this one, taking on the TCU linebackers and safeties, while the star WRs have to contend with Josh Newton and Avery Helm in coverage. Conversely, while these rush yard totals seem large, it’s hard to imagine Brooks and Baxter being held in check by this TCU defense that allowed nearly 500 rush yards over the last two games.