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March to Madness: 2023 NCAA Tournament Bracketology, February 10

The Frogs drop a seed-line after 0-2 week, looking for bounce back vs. Baylor

NCAA Basketball: Texas Christian at Kansas State Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports

Frog Status

  • NET Rank: 24 (↓8)
  • RPI: 44 (↓3)
  • KenPom Rank: 24 (↓9)
  • ESPN BPI: 22 (↓4)

Bracketologists View of TCU:

  • Lunardi: 5-seed vs. #45 Liberty in Orlando, FL
  • Palm: 5-seed vs. #36 Oral Roberts in Sacramento, CA
  • Haslam: 5-seed
  • Torvik: 99.5% in Tournament; 5.1-seed
  • INCCSTATS: 96.8% in Tournament; 5-seed; 6.7% in Final Four

NET impact for the losses in Stillwater & Manhattan

Going on the road in the Big 12 is a constant nightmare and the Horned Frogs ran into back-to-back away contests last week, suffering defeats in both. TCU’s games in Stillwater and Manhattan went in similar fashion, as the Frogs fell into an early grave, dug its way out looking for a competitive ending, but floundered to the finish line for a sloppy loss. The 0-2 week has dropped the Frogs off the four-seed line across all bracket projections, but still quite far above the Bubble cut line. However the job is not done, the Frogs need to get a couple more wins and there is no guarantee any more will come given every remaining game will be against a NET Top-34 opponent. Saturday’s game brings the Frogs home to Fort Worth against a Baylor team that is on the rise and healthier than when TCU took down the Bears in Waco a month ago; a win in Schollmaier would be a huge boost back into the race for a Top-4 seed in the NCAA Tournament

Impact Game of the Week:

#50 Oregon (↑9) def. #57 USC (↓6) - These teams essentially swapped places after the Ducks’ 18-point victory over the Trojans in Eugene on Thursday night. Now tied in the win-column for third in the Pac 12, both squads are sitting on the fence in the Bubble race, with few quality opportunities remaining in a down season for the Pac 12. Oregon gets its final Q1 opportunity of the season on Saturday, hosting #5 UCLA; any 3 losses the rest of the way likely fully eliminates the Ducks, while a win over UCLA flips them over the Bubble cut line. USC still has three Q1 opportunities, but two are road contests against fringe top-75 squads Colorado & Utah before hosting #8 Arizona in March. A January win over UCLA puts the Trojans in a better spot to stay in the Tournament, but with its next three games against Q3 & Q4 opponents, any loss could prove devastating.


  • #31 Miami FL (↑9) - Defeat good teams by a wide margin and the NET will bring you great rewards; the Hurricanes demolished #29 Duke by 22 points on Monday to move into a 4-way tie in the win-column atop the ACC. Miami is very much a seeding threat to TCU, currently also consensus 5-seed. Perhaps the Hurricanes get caught sleeping at home against a truly awful #331 Louisville team before critical matchup looming with North Carolina and Wake Forest.
  • #37 Texas A&M (↑11) - After being as low as #120 in the NET back in December, the Aggies have made big leaps up the board in recent weeks. A&M now finds itself alone in 2nd place in the SEC after completing the season sweep of #32 Auburn in College Station on Tuesday night. TAMU gets a Q3 game against LSU before a brutal stretch of 4-straight Q1 challenges where the Aggies post-season future will be decided.


  • #40 Kentucky (↓9) - Although getting trounced in Rupp Arena by Arkansas is certainly less than ideal and the Wildcat faithful demand more from the program, Coach Cal’s squad still has plenty of opportunities to impress. UK will likely easily roll past Georgia in Athens on Saturday before three huge Q1 opportunities and the season finale in Fayetteville to exert revenge on the Hogs. The Cats likely do enough in that stretch to move safely off the Bubble.
  • #46 Ohio State (↓10) - The Buckeyes have lost five straight and continue to tumble down the metric rankings and will have a difficult time building a Tournament-worthy resume simply due to lack of wins; with with an undefeated run through the rest of the regular season, OSU would finish 18-13 likely needing help and more wins in the Bing Ten Tournament to have a solid Big Dance ticket. That unblemished push to close the season would be a massive challenge, as every remaining contest is against teams ranked in the NET Top-41.

Look Ahead:

  • #19 West Virginia at #10 Texas - Sat. Feb. 11, 11 AM ESPN2
  • #62 Penn St. at #28 Maryland - Sat. Feb. 11, 11 AM Big Ten Network
  • #9 Kansas at #65 Oklahoma - Sat. Feb. 11, Noon CBS
  • #2 Alabama at #32 Auburn - Sat. Feb. 11, 1 PM ESPN
  • #6 UConn at #15 Creighton - Sat. Feb. 11, 1PM FOX
  • #21 Rutgers at #26 Illinois - Sat. Feb. 11, 1 PM FS1
  • #70 Clemson at #44 North Carolina - Sat. Feb. 11, ESPN2
  • #29 Duke at #14 Virginia - Sat. Feb. 11, ESPN
  • #82 UNLV at #22 San Diego St - Sat. Feb. 11, 3 PM FOX
  • #51 Missouri at #3 Tennessee - Sat. Feb. 11, SEC Network
  • #34 Oklahoma St. at #13 Iowa St. - Sat. Feb. 11, 5 PM ESPN2
  • #64 Michigan at #20 Indiana - Sat. Feb. 11, 5 PM ESPN
  • #48 Mississippi St. at #23 Arkansas - Sat. Feb. 11, 5PM ESPNU
  • #5 UCLA at #50 Oregon - Sat. Feb. 11, 9 PM ESPN
  • #89 BYU at #12 Gonzaga - Sat. Feb. 11, 9 PM ESPN2
  • #41 Michigan St. at #46 Ohio St. - Sun. Feb. 12, Noon CBS
  • #4 Purdue at #49 Northwestern - Sun. Feb. 12, 1 PM Big Ten Network