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March to Madness: 2023 NCAA Tournament Bracketology, February 20

The return of Mike Miles has the Horned Frogs back on solid ground ahead of Big Monday showdown with projected 1-seed Kansas

NCAA Basketball: Oklahoma State at Texas Christian Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Frog Status

  • NET Rank: 21 (↑3)
  • RPI: 61 (↓17)
  • KenPom Rank: 19 (↑5)
  • ESPN BPI: 25 (↓3)

Bracketologists View of TCU:

  • Lunardi: 6-seed vs. #76 Wisconsin / #81 Clemson in Des Moines, IA
  • Palm: 6-seed vs. #22 Florida Atlantic in Greensboro, NC (Yikes)
  • Haslam: 5-seed
  • Torvik: 99.9% in Tournament; 4.9-seed
  • INCCSTATS: 95.6% in Tournament; 6-seed; 5.7% in Final Four

The NET impact of the last three games

Welcome back Mike Miles! The Horned Frogs’ dominant performance over the Cowboys on Saturday to end a four-game losing streak was one of its best performances of the season, allowing TCU to keep pace ahead of the 8/9 line and with an opportunity to get back into the top-4 seeding conversation with nothing but Q1 opponents remaining. The game was by far TCU’s best shooting performance from the field at over 68% while matching a season-best (at Kansas) 53.3% from 3-point range. The NCAA revealed its in-season Top 16, showing the top-4 seeds in each region, if the Bracket were to be announced now. TCU was rightly not included in this ranking, revealed before the games of Saturday, but these are clearly the teams that the Frogs are most closely battling for one of those precious top-4 seeds.

The Big 12 was widely represented with five teams already in this Top 16, which does impact the seeding and regional locations as conference mates with top-4 seeds cannot meet in the Tournament prior to the Sweet 16. TCU fans will be looking for late season collapse, especially for those in the 3 and 4 slots, to have a chance to earn its way into that position. So TCU wins + losses for Indiana, Xavier, Gonzaga, Marquette, Virginia, Tennessee, Kansas State, and Iowa State can power the Frogs to a much improved likelihood for a deep Tournament run. TCU certainly has a massive game in Schollmaier Arena on Big Monday, with the opportunity for a season sweep of the Kansas Jayhawks that would vault the Frogs up the seeding pecking order.

Impact Game of the Week:

  • #39 Northwestern (↑10) def. #42 Iowa (↓7) - The Wildcats have been on a heater in February, winning 5 straight including victories over then #1-ranked Purdue and NET #18 Indiana, to move into 2nd place in the Big Ten. While Northwestern has hovered in the 45-to-65 range in the NET for most of 2023, these collection of resume sealing wins has moved it from the Bubble to a virtual lock for the Big Dance. With three road contests against top-30 squads, the Wildcats will have a chance to push for a top-4 seed or see itself fall back towards the 8/9 game. Northwester’s winning streak culminated with a 20-point domination of the Hawkeyes on Sunday. Iowa’s schedule ahead is more much lighter than NW’s, with its only Q1 game coming at #18 Indiana next week and closing the season at home against lowly Nebraska. Frog fans are rooting for the Hawkeyes to remain in the NET Top 50 to keep TCU’s neutral-site win in the Emerald Coast Classic finale a Q1 designation.


  • #54 Texas Tech (↑20) - 10 days ago the Red Raiders were 1-10 in the Big 12, spending several weeks as a sub-70 NET team and staring down a schedule of six straight Q1 opponents; all hope of a Tournament bid appeared to be lost. Instead Mark Adams rallied his troops for home wins over #20 Kansas State and #9 Texas and a win in Morgantown over #32 WVU. De’Vion Harmon has caught fire for TTU, averaging over 19 points per game in that stretch. With a trip to Norman on Tuesday and hosting the Horned Frogs on Saturday, if this winning streak continues the Red Raiders will be impossible to ignore as in the final stretch of the Bubble race.
  • #28 Texas A&M (↑9) - The Aggies keep finding a way into this category every week, having lost just twice in its last 16 contests as the Palpable Buzz Williams continues to build in College Station. The overall resume is not terribly impressive, with two sub-200 losses and just a 5-4 record in Q1 games, TAMU continues to be projected at the 8/9 line despite this run of success. However, A&M will have massive opportunities to jump even further up the rankings, with home games against the SEC’s top two teams, beginning with #3 Tennessee on Tuesday and #2 Alabama in the season finale, which could be for the SEC regular season Title.


  • #32 West Virginia (↓13) - A signature win over Iowa State had the Mountaineers in the NET top-20, but it is tumbling again mostly due to a home loss to Texas Tech that has breathed life into the Red Raiders with the two Big 12 foes now with identical records , both in the conference and overall (15-12; 4-10). It is very unlikely that the Selection Committee will bring nine Big 12 squads into the field of 68, so WVU needs to win games down the stretch to get back into solid footing, despite its strong metrics - facing Oklahoma State in Morgantown on Monday night is a near must-win game with its final three games against top 20 teams.
  • #68 Ohio State (↓22) - The Buckeyes’ free fall continues, having now dropped eight straight and falling to 10 games below .500 in the B1G. OSU is fully off the Bubble and almost certainly must win the Big Ten Tournament to reach the Big Dance. Bracketologists can likely take the Buckeyes out of any watch list.

Look Ahead:

  • #37 Oklahoma St. at #32 West Virginia - Mon. Feb. 20, 6 PM ESPN2
  • #84 Villanova at #25 Xavier - Tue. Feb. 21, 5:30 PM FS1
  • #12 Baylor at #20 Kansas State - Tue. Feb. 21, 6 PM ESPN2
  • #3 Tennessee at #28 Texas A&M - Tue. Feb. 21, 6 PM ESPN
  • #31 Miami at # 63 Virginia Tech - Tue. Feb. 21, 6 PM ESPNU
  • #43 Mississippi State at #51 Missouri - Tue. Feb. 21, 6 PM SEC Network
  • #14 Marquette at #13 Creighton - Tue. Feb. 21, 7:30 PM FS1
  • #15 Iowa State at #9 Texas - Tue. - Feb. 21, 8 PM Longhorn Network
  • #18 Indiana at #40 Michigan St. - Tue. Feb. 21, 8 PM ESPN
  • #38 Providence at #8 UConn - Wed. Feb. 22, 5:30 PM FS1
  • #35 Kentucky at #53 Florida - Wed. Feb. 22, 6 PM ESPN
  • #47 New Mexico at #23 Boise St. - Wed. Feb. 22, 9:30 PM
  • #65 Michigan at #29 Rutgers - Thur. Feb. 23, 7:30 PM FS1
  • #39 Northwestern at #27 Illinois - Thur. Feb. 23, 8 PM Big Ten Network
Results from the weekend and the look-ahead to the week’s games for the NET Top 32