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March to Madness: 2023 NCAA Tournament Bracketology, February 3

Win over WVU erases any resume damage caused by OT loss at Mississippi State

NCAA Basketball: West Virginia at Texas Christian Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports

Frog Status

  • NET Rank: 16 (↓3)
  • RPI: 41 (↑2)
  • KenPom Rank: 15 (↓2)
  • ESPN BPI: 18 (↓2)

Bracketologists View of TCU:

  • Lunardi: 4-seed vs. #89 Louisiana in Orlando, FL
  • Palm: 4-seed vs. #86 UC Santa Barbara in Orlando, FL
  • Haslam: 4-seed
  • Torvik: 99.9% in Tournament; 3.4-seed
  • INCCSTATS: 99.0% in Tournament; 3-seed; 10.6% in Final Four

NET impact for the loss to the Bulldogs and the win over the Mountaineers

There were moments during and after TCU Basketball’s loss to the Mississippi State Bulldogs that Frog fans felt as if the sky was falling and the wind had fully left the sails of TCU’s chances for a successful season. Already without starting Center Eddie Lampkin, the Frogs lost Player of the Year candidate Mike Miles to what appeared to be a devastating knee injury as TCU lost to a team with seven conference losses in a mediocre SEC. The reality was not quite as dramatic, Miles’ knee injury has been downgraded to a hyperextension with no torn ligaments and was reported as not season-ending, and the loss is a Q1 loss to a top-50 team in overtime on the road. TCU’s season did not spiral out of control as the Frogs returned to frigid Fort Worth to take down the West Virginia Mountaineers in front of a huge crowd despite the icy conditions Tuesday. So after all that, the Frogs are right where we left them last week, a consensus Top-4 seed that will need to keep pace to remain in that lofty position. The Frogs will get their first crack at Oklahoma State this season on Saturday in Stillwater, as former Cowboy Rondel Walker may have an expanded role if Miles misses the game as expected. It’s a game both squads need to win, as TCU looks to remain in the race at the top of the conference while OSU looks to earn its way into that top tier. The Frogs have a tough battle ahead, but cannot get caught looking past the Cowboys, as TCU follows up this contest with three games against ranked opponents, two of which are on the road.

Impact Game of the Week:

#33 Iowa (↑8) def. #57 Northwestern (↓13) - The Hawkeyes continue to help the TCU resume, as the team the Frogs defeated in the Emerald Coast Classic finale back in November has climbed up to a tie for 4th in the Big Ten. Iowa earned two double-digit wins at home this week over other top-5 B1G teams, taking down #19 Rutgers on Saturday before a 16-point dismantling of the Wildcats on Tuesday. Iowa has another pair of huge opportunities coming up this week, hosting #25 Illinois Saturday before heading to Mackey Arena for #1 Purdue on Thursday, with a chance to move safely off the Bubble. Northwestern has its own Bubble fights ahead with fellow B1G Bubble teams #68 Wisconsin & #26 Ohio State.


  • #23 Duke (↑9) - The ACC is a complete train wreck in 2023, perhaps the worst the conference has ever been, with an average NET ranking of 109. One thing the NET loves no matter the competition level: dominant away wins and the Blue Devils certainly got one of those last Saturday: a 43-point win over #228 Georgia Tech in Atlanta. Duke was also able to escape #75 Wake Forest at home on Tuesday. Even without Coach K the Blue Devils will continue to get the Blue Blood treatment by the committee, so even as a middling team in a terrible ACC, Duke will remain in the chase for a top seed, especially if it emerges with a winning record over the next week with games against #43 UNC, #40 Miami, and #13 Virginia.
  • #39 Oklahoma State (↑12) - The Cowboys are making a strong push to make sure the Big 12 sends 7 teams to the Big Dance, with a 2-0 week that included a 22-point home victory over Ole Miss and a 10-point win in Norman to send its rival down the Bubble pecking order. OSU Forward Kalib Boone is playing out of his mind lately, scoring 18 points in each of his last three games, missing just 3 shots total in that period. He and the Cowboys will look to keep it rolling with the Horned Frogs coming to Gallagher-Iba Arena on Saturday, with TCU still perhaps sporting a hobbled Eddie Lampkin and no Mike Miles.


  • #15 Iowa State (↓6) - It was all good just a week ago, as the Cyclones were riding high atop the Big 12 standings headed into the SEC/Big 12 Challenge. where ISU got blown out at Mizzou. The greater damage was done in Lubbock, as the Cyclones allowed Texas Tech to claw back from a 23-point deficit, with the Red Raiders ultimately winning in OT despite ISU’s flurry of 3-point attempts in the final seconds. ISU returns to Ames on Saturday looking for some Hilton Magic as #7 Kansas comes to town with both squads holding a 6-3 conference record halfway through the Big 12 schedule. Iowa State is certainly not at risk of falling into the Bubble, but with a tough road contest in Morgantown on Wednesday, it’s hold on a top-4 seed could weaken if the losing streak continues.
  • #37 New Mexico (↓8) - The Mountain West is having another standout season, with potential for 5 teams to reach the NCAA Tournament, looking to do better than its winless tournament in 2022. The Lobos went a perfect 12-0 in the non-conference schedule, including a road win at #6 Saint Mary’s, reaching as high as #12 in the NET. However, UNM has now dropped four MWC contests, including a brutal loss to #201 Fresno St and most recently an 11-point loss at #32 Utah State. Still with five Q1+Q2 opportunities on the calendar, the Lobos still could begin clawing back safely off the Bubble, beginning with #34 Nevada on Tuesday in The Pit.

Look Ahead:

  • #20 Boise St at #28 San Diego St - Fri. Feb. 3, 8 PM FS1
  • #6 Virginia at #53 Virginia Tech - Sat. Feb. 4, 11 AM ESPN2
  • #7 Kansas at #15 Iowa State - Sat. Feb. 4, 11 AM ESPN
  • #47 Michigan State at #19 Rutgers - Sat. Feb. 4, 11 AM FOX
  • #29 Auburn at #2 Tennessee - Sat. Feb. 4, 1 PM ESPN
  • #25 Illinois at #33 Iowa - Sat. Feb. 4, 1:30 PM FOX
  • #40 Miami at #65 Clemson - Sat. Feb. 4, 2 PM ACC Network
  • #3 Purdue at #22 Indiana - Sat. Feb. 4, 3 PM ESPN
  • #9 Texas at #18 Kansas State - Sat. Feb. 4, 3 PM ESPN2
  • #45 Missouri at #49 Mississippi State - Sat. Feb. 4, 5 PM SEC Network
  • #43 North Carolina at #23 Duke - Sat. Feb. 4, 5:30 PM ESPN
  • #41 Florida at #31 Kentucky - Sat. Feb. 4, 7:30 PM ESPN
  • #11 Gonzaga at #6 Saint Mary’s - Sat. Feb. 4, 9:30 PM ESPN
  • #36 Ohio State at #71 Michigan - Sun. Feb. 5, Noon CBS
Snapshot of the NET Top 32