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The Big 12 Tournament opens tonight and it’s a wide open race to the finish line: KenPom has Kansas as the favorite with a 25.7% chance to win the trophy and Bart Torvik has Texas as the leader at just 22.2%. With elite teams and players throughout the conference, every team can see a path to the Championship, though some have greater hurdles than others. The Frogs O’ War Staff offers our thoughts on how the Tournament will play out and who will be cutting down the nets on Saturday:
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Anthony North:
- Champion: Baylor Bears
- Runner-Up: TCU Horned Frogs
- MVP: Adam Flagler, Baylor
I hate myself for this prediction and I apologize. My Champion & Runner-Up very well may lose their opening games in the Quarterfinals; such is life in the Big 12. Baylor was projected to win the conference pre-season and although it couldn’t get it done across 18 games, it’s now healthy and ready to roll off three straight wins in KC. As the #2 Offense on KenPom, Baylor and it’s elite three-point shooting is built to win in the Tournament setting: able to explode for big leads or dig itself out of an early hole. Opening with ISU is a tough draw, as the Cyclones swept the Bears in emphatic fashion, out-scoring Baylor by 30 points in the two regular season contests. It’s very difficult to take down a team like Baylor three times in a season and I think the Bears will find a way to escape ISU’s swarming defense and snail’s pace to advance. Maybe I am not giving Texas enough respect as the Big 12’s top overall team per KenPom, but I see the winner of Thursday’s Kansas State-TCU game advancing beyond the Longhorns into the finals. I’ll roll with our Horned Frogs to make its first ever Big 12 Championship, given that the loss in Manhattan was without Mike Miles and was a close game before the Wildcats blew it open in the final minutes.
Drew Carlton:
- Champion: Texas Longhorns
- Runner-Up: Baylor Bears
- MVP: Sir’Jabari Rice, Texas
This prediction might be a nightmare scenario for Frog fans as their two most heated in conference rivals would play for the championship and it pained me to write it. That being said I think Baylor has the three point fire power to knock off Kansas in the semifinals assuming both teams make it past their quarterfinals opponents which is no guarantee in the Big 12. I think the Frogs make it past the Wildcats but ultimately fall to Texas in the semifinals. The Longhorns present a tough matchup for the Frogs with their aggressive defense of ball screens, limiting the damage TCU guards are able to do in the half court. We saw some innovation from Jamie Dixon in the last part of the season, having guards and forwards set screens as opposed to just centers to try and combat aggressive trapping by the defense on pick and roll and committing to that offensive strategy against Texas is how TCU could win and make it into the championship game. I don’t know if we will see that from the Frogs and I think a motivated Texas team goes on a run after a disappointing finish to the regular season left them in second place in the conference.
Matthew Sgroi:
- Champion: Baylor Bears
- Runner-Up: TCU Horned Frogs
- MVP: Keyonte George, Baylor
The Frogs get the luck of facing Oklahoma State in the semifinals, after the Cowboys upset Texas in the Quarterfinals, but TCU’s luck only takes it so far. While the Frogs may have been “looking ahead” to this tournament and beyond, the beat down in Norman hasn’t carried any momentum into Kansas City. The Frogs will right the track with (close, albeit) wins over Kansas State (Quarterfinals) and Oklahoma State (Semifinals), but Baylor’s three-headed monster of LJ Cryer, Adam Flagler, and Keyonte George will end the Frogs’ hope of winning the program’s first Big 12 Championship. Baylor’s just too much matchup-wise - and beating Kansas a day before meeting the Frogs in the Championship game will push the Bears’ hunger over-the-edge. Keyonte George wins the Big 12 Tournament MVP after back-to-back 20-point performances against Kansas and TCU.
Russ Hodges:
- Champion: Kansas Jayhawks
- Runner-Up: TCU Horned Frogs
- MVP: Jalen Wilson, Kansas
Kansas has the easiest route to the championship game and the least stressful path to a conference tournament title. I think Kansas State is a more difficult opponent than Texas, but I also think that the Horned Frogs could reach the finals if they can sneak past the Wildcats. It’s tough to determine what TCU team will show up or which players will be healthy, but a victory over Kansas State should effectively seal a 5 seed for the Horned Frogs. I think TCU will be motivated to make a statement as the NCAA Tournament approaches.
How do you see the Big 12 Tournament playing out in Kansas City this weekend?
Poll
Which team wins the 2023 Big 12 Tournament?
This poll is closed
-
11%
Baylor
(7 votes) -
10%
Iowa State
(6 votes) -
26%
Kansas
(16 votes) -
3%
Kansas State
(2 votes) -
0%
Oklahoma
(0 votes) -
0%
Oklahoma State
(0 votes) -
31%
TCU
(19 votes) -
10%
Texas
(6 votes) -
1%
Texas Tech
(1 vote) -
5%
West Virginia
(3 votes)
Poll
Which team will be the 2023 Big 12 Tournament Runner Up?
This poll is closed
-
21%
Baylor
(8 votes) -
5%
Iowa State
(2 votes) -
34%
Kansas
(13 votes) -
2%
Kansas State
(1 vote) -
0%
Oklahoma
(0 votes) -
0%
Oklahoma State
(0 votes) -
21%
TCU
(8 votes) -
15%
Texas
(6 votes) -
0%
Texas Tech
(0 votes) -
0%
West Virginia
(0 votes)
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