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Frogs Odds: 2023 Preseason Futures

How do the oddsmakers see the season playing out for TCU & the Big 12?

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: FEB 02 Reese’s Senior Bowl Practice Photo by Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

TCU Future Odds

NOTE: All lines are pulled from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.

National Champion: +10000
To Make Playoff: Yes: +3000; No: -20000
Imagine dropping 20 large for a possible payout of only $100, just for Sonny Dykes to lead the Horned Frogs to consecutive trips to the College Football Playoff. I need to see the haters with so much confidence that believe it’s fully impossible to take this opportunity for what they consider free money; drop those bet slips in the comments. Of the teams for which a “To Make Playoff” option is even offered, TCU is tied with Tulane for the longest odds. Programs like Iowa (+1100), Ole Miss (+2500), and Oregon State (+2500) are seen as more likely than the Frogs to crack into the CFP. With the Frogs reaching that pinnacle a year ago, it’s built belief in similarly under-the-radar programs that perhaps a magical run is in the cards. As for the National Champion odds, the +10000 mark is about the end of the “yeah I could see the path for them if everything goes just right” (Kansas State, UCLA, UNC) and just ahead of “I mean there’s talent, but that path looks impossible” (South Carolina, Miami FL, Auburn). You probably aren’t putting your monetary support behind any of these programs to win the Natty unless you are a fan of the team. Odds for other Big 12 teams to win the National Championship: Texas +2200, Oklahoma +6000, KSU +10000, Texas Tech +20000, Baylor +20000, Iowa State +30000, UCF +30000, OK State +30000, Kansas +30000, BYU +40000, Cincinnati +50000, Houston +50000, WVU +50000.

Big 12 Champion: +1600
To Make Big 12 Championship: +600
The oddsmakers have the Horned Frogs as fifth most likely team to make in to AT&T Stadium for the conference title game and to win that game, just as the media picked TCU to finish fifth in the preseason. TCU certainly has a challenging schedule and may be unlikely to run the table in the conference, but now the Frogs are a value with public sentiment so low on TCU’s chances for another successful season. Meanwhile the hype is off the charts for the Texas Longhorns this season, as Steve Sarkisian’s squad is a heavy favorite to reach Arlington (-240) and lift the trophy (+100), with a projected matchup against fellow departing member Oklahoma (+120). Houston is picked dead last in the conference in Head Coach Dana Holgorsen’s return to the league, with the longest odds of making the Big 12 Title game at +8000.

Heisman Trophy Winner:
Chandler Morris: +15000
Trey Sanders: +20000
A year ago Chandler Morris earned the starting quarterback role over Max Duggan; Morris got injured Week 1 and Max Duggan ended up as the Heisman runner-up. Seeing that path to New York City in 2022, one could see Chandler Morris leading the Frogs to another incredible season and taking a spot atop that Heisman stage. For Sanders, a return to his five-star pedigree could mean a monster season in this TCU offense, though he will likely be sharing the workload with Emani Bailey. Ultimately the Heisman odds should be treated purely as entertainment, as it’s a total shot in the dark to select the actual winner.

Season Win Total: Over 7.5 (-130); Under 7.5 (+110)
Conference Wins: Over 5.5 (+155); Under 5.5 (-185)

This continues the theme of oddsmakers projecting TCU to be middle-of-the-pack in the Big 12 this season, with a most likely regular season record of 8-4, with all four losses coming during conference play. Given the odds across the conference, this theory hinges on TCU losing four of its final five games (at KSU, at TTU, Texas, Baylor, at OU), as the Frogs are projected as underdogs vs. the Longhorns and in Manhattan, Lubbock, and Norman.

Player Props

Note: Prop lines are pulled from PrizePicks and are subject to change. Join with promo code Frogs12 to get a 100% deposit match up to $100.

No TCU players are listed with season-long stat props, perhaps there is just too much unknown about the depth chart. However there are plenty of TCU opponents and Big 12 players with season-long props that the TCU defense may be able to influence.

Regular Season Pass Yards:
Quinn Ewers, Texas QB: 2,950.5
Jalon Daniels, Kansas QB: 2,500.5
Dillon Gabriel, Oklahoma QB: 3,025.5
Will Howard, Kansas State QB: 2,625.5
Shedeur Sanders, Colorado QB: 2,725.5

I may be a square with these, but I like the look of the under on the low numbers and the over on the high numbers. Gabriel will either go well over this number or he will be replaced by Jackson Arnold, I’d expect him to already be beyond the over before the season finale vs. the Horned Frogs. While I enjoy the talents of Jalon Daniels, I fear the hype train running out of control and perhaps his passing yardage takes a back seat to his running game. Actually now that I’m talking through it, let’s go ahead and place a 5-pick flex play for Ewers, Sanders, Gabriel to throw for more yards than this projection and Howard & Daniels to have fewer yards than projected.

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