NOTE: All lines are pulled from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.
Both the TCU Horned Frogs and West Virginia Mountaineers enter their Big 12 showdown on Saturday night with 3-1 records straight up and 2-2 against the spread. Last week TCU kept the Iron Skillet in Fort Worth, covering a 6.5-point spread; WVU won outright last week as a 5-point home underdog. Last season TCU covered as a 7.5-point favorite in Morgantown thanks to a game sealing fourth down TD pass to Savion Williams to secure a 10-point win.
Moneyline: TCU -535; WVU +400
Spread: TCU -13.5; WVU + 13.5
Total Points: 52
This spread has been on a wild ride this week. Opening with the Frogs as a 7-point favorite on Sunday, the number climbed as high as 14.5 adding a full touchdown in TCU’s favor. The number has since bounced back down below two touchdowns. The total point has made a big shift as well, dropping from 55.5 as the way down to 50.5 before settling here on the key number of 52. With the news that WVU starting QB Garrett Greene is expected to return from injury, this line may continue to fluctuate. These lines suggest the Horned Frogs win convincingly in a defensive battle, as it did in the previous three games. Just beware of the West Virginia run game as CJ Donaldson ran wild on the Frogs last season and could be looking for an encore.
At time of publishing, there are still no West Virginia projections posted on PrizePicks, so we’ll focus on the Horned Frogs
Pass Yards: 227.5
Pass Interceptions: 0.5
Rush Yards: 37.5
The West Virginia defense has obliterated the passing attack of its last two opponents, holding Pitt & TTU to a combined 242 pass yards total and has forced five total interceptions this season. As well the QB run game has not been effective vs. the Mountaineers, as its only allowed 48 total QB rush yards in its three FBS games this season. That said, Chandler Morris has improved each week after two killer red zone interceptions in Week 1, with his per game average pass (280.25) and rush (46) yards well more than the projections here.
Rush Yards: 104.5
The respect for Bailey is really real. He has been used in a workhorse role atop the RB depth chart for the Frogs this season and has been dominant with that huge workload, averaging over 20 carries for over 120 yards per game, good for a 6 yard per carry average. WVU ranks as a top-40 rush defense this season, allowing just 3.2 yards per carry and under 110 yards per game. That includes games against high level backs such as Penn State’s Nicholas Singleton & Kaytron Allen, Pitt’s Rodney Hammond, and Texas Tech’s Tahj Brooks. Can Bailey surpass the Mountaineers’ season average all on his own? It will be his biggest challenge of the season, but he’s certainly shown to be capable.